NAFTA or Brexit: what influences GBP/CAD the most?

NAFTA or Brexit: what influences GBP/CAD the most?

Diperbarui • 2019-11-11

Recent tensions between the US and Canada about the North American free trade agreement (NAFTA) renegotiations as well as Brexit uncertainties brought weakness to the Canadian and British currencies. As a result, GBP/CAD keeps struggling with turbulence following the speeches of government members, analytic reviews and banks’ statements. It is quite hard to project where the pair can go in the near future. That is why it is necessary to focus on the main dates for both of these events.

NAFTA talks

NAFTA problem occurred when the US president Donald Trump said that the current trade agreement between the three countries was unacceptable and had to be revised. Trump and Mexican president Peña Nieto reached an agreement on a NAFTA 2.0 on 27th of August and invited Canadian prime-minister Justin Trudeau to sigh the agreement. However, this week added uncertainties in the negotiations between the US and Canada, as Canada did not agree on the suggested conditions.

0124697c547ae550b5aa361de8d99120.png

Key dates:

September 28 – publication of the full text of draft agreement between Mexico and the US. Some analysts say that the US Congress will not sign a pact unless it is trilateral. 

September 30 - the deadline for Canada to make a deal under new conditions. Trudeau told that the country will negotiate only if conditions are suitable for Canada.

November 30 – If the negative scenario for Canada takes over, then this is be the deadline when Trump sends the papers for approval by the US Congress. This does not mean that Canada is going to be kicked out from NAFTA, though it can add uncertainties to the market and to the currency in particular.

October 21, 2019 – the national elections in Canada. Some experts expect Trudeau to sign a NAFTA deal before this date. That means the CAD might continue to be affected by NAFTA negotiations until the middle of the next year.

Brexit talks

Theresa May tries to stick to her course, fueling the economy on both the EU and Great Britain sides. No-deal Brexit could mean separation from the European Union, fall in the value of pound and increase of the food prices.

Comment-89-Brexit-Chart.jpg

Key dates:

September 30 – October 3 – Conservative party press conference. It is known, that some members of the Cabinet do not support May’s decision on the no-deal Brexit.

October 18 – the deadline for Brexit deal. However, it can be extended until the middle of November.

December 13-14 – European Union council meeting. If there is no deal until December, this meeting will be the last chance for the both sides to decide on the new agreement. If they reach the consensus, there will be the UK parliamentary vote on Brexit deal and European parliament ratification.

January 21, 2019 – the deadline for the British government to make a statement if there is a no-deal outcome.

March 29, 2019 – Brexit. Britain will leave the EU. In case of “deal” situation Britain will have a transition period, which will help businesses from the both sides to adapt to the changing situation.

December 31, 2020 - the end of the transition period.

As we can see, the situation is unclear for both countries. However, Canada looked more confident in its position as the US Congress stated that there could be only a three-side agreement. This means that in the short-term period the loonie looks more stable against the British pound. The pair is trading in a ranging market between the support at 1.68 and the resistance at 1.718. 

GBPCADDaily.png

 The GBP/CAD price move right now depends on how fast the countries will come to a “deal”. As many analysts see the “no-deal” scenario unlikely in both situations, we can expect clearer picture by the end of 2018. 

Menyerupai

Berita terbaru

Sanggupkan Emas Berlama-lama di Puncak?
Sanggupkan Emas Berlama-lama di Puncak?

XAUUSD naik ke rekor tertinggi baru pada perdagangan Senin (01/04/2024), di tengah meningkatnya spekulasi penurunan suku bunga..melanjutkan kenaikan kuat minggu lalu hingga membentuk level puncak baru sepanjang masa

Sebagian Pasar Masih Libur, Yen Stabil di Bawah 152
Sebagian Pasar Masih Libur, Yen Stabil di Bawah 152

Pasar saham Asia sebagian masih libur dan sebagian lagi menguat pada perdagangan Senin (01/04/2024), karena optimisme data pabrikan Tiongkok mendukung..potensi intervensi otoritas Jepang terhadap yen Jepang diperkirakan berada di zona 152 – 155 yen. 

Deposit dengan sistem pembayaran bank lokal DI INDONESIA

Pemberitahuan pengumpulan data

FBS menyimpan catatan data Anda untuk menjalankan website ini. Dengan menekan tombol "Setuju", Anda menyetujui kebijakan Privasi kami.

Ditelepon kembali

 1
 93
 355
 213
 1684
 376
 244
 1264
 672
 1268
 54
 374
 297
 61
 43
 994
 1242
 973
 880
 1246
 375
 32
 501
 229
 1441
 975
 591
 387
 267
 55
 246
 673
 359
 226
 257
 855
 237
 1
 238
 1345
 236
 235
 56
 86
 61
 61
 57
 269
 242
 243
 682
 506
 225
 385
 53
 357
 420
 45
 253
 1767
 1809
 593
 20
 503
 240
 291
 372
 251
 500
 298
 679
 358
 33
 594
 689
 241
 220
 995
 49
 233
 350
 30
 299
 1473
 590
 1671
 502
 224
 245
 592
 509
 39
 504
 852
 36
 354
 91
 62
 98
 964
 353
 44
 972
 39
 1876
 81
 962
 7
 254
 686
 850
 82
 965
 996
 856
 371
 961
 266
 231
 218
 423
 370
 352
 853
 389
 261
 265
 60
 960
 223
 356
 692
 596
 222
 230
 262
 52
 691
 373
 377
 976
 382
 1664
 212
 258
 95
 264
 674
 977
 31
 599
 687
 64
 505
 227
 234
 683
 672
 1670
 47
 968
 92
 680
 970
 507
 675
 595
 51
 63
 64
 48
 351
 1787
 974
 262
 40
 7
 250
 590
 290
 1869
 1758
 590
 508
 1784
 685
 378
 239
 966
 221
 381
 248
 232
 65
 421
 386
 677
 252
 27
 500
 34
 94
 249
 597
 268
 46
 41
 963
 886
 992
 255
 66
 670
 228
 690
 676
 1868
 216
 90
 993
 1649
 688
 256
 380
 971
 44
 1
 1
 598
 998
 678
 58
 84
 1284
 1
 681
 2
 967
 260
 263
00:00
00:00
00:00
01:00
02:00
03:00
04:00
05:00
06:00
07:00
08:00
09:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
21:00
22:00
23:00
23:00
23:00
00:00
01:00
02:00
03:00
04:00
05:00
06:00
07:00
08:00
09:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
21:00
22:00
23:00

Manajer kami akan menghubungi Anda

Merubah nomor

Permintaan Anda diterima.

Manajer kami akan menghubungi Anda

Permintaan panggilan balik berikutnya untuk nomor telepon ini
akan tersedia setelah

Jika Anda memiliki masalah mendesak, silakan hubungi kami melalui
Live chat

Internal error. Silahkan coba lagi

Jangan buang waktu Anda – tetap awasi dampak NFP terhadap dolar dan raup profitnya!

Anda menggunakan versi browser lama Anda.

Perbarui ke versi terbaru atau coba yang lain untuk pengalaman trading yang lebih aman, lebih nyaman dan produktif.

Safari Chrome Firefox Opera