NZD broke downtrend lasting for month

NZD/USD has broken the marked downtrend that has been lasting for a month. Recently, it reached levels unseen since December 2019. What are the reasons?

Fundamentals

NZD/USD has been mainly driven by the weakness of the US dollar. Yesterday, US Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell claimed that the Fed will allow inflation and employment to run higher. Therefore, the interest rates will stay at low levels for years to come. Most analysts took it skeptically as they believe these measures may lead to the fragility of the US economy. As a result, the dovish outlook of the Fed’s statement pressed on the greenback. Consequently, riskier assets surged, and the New Zealand dollar was just one of them. That goes against the wish of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to see the kiwi depreciated, as it makes their goods and services more expensive for other countries. Indeed, the continued bid in the New Zealand dollar will be discouraging for the country.

Economic indicators also added headwinds to the kiwi this week. New Zealand’s retail sales turned out better than predicted this Monday: -14.6% vs. the forecast of -16.3%. Moreover, New Zealand reported a trade surplus, which came out almost matching expectations: 282 million New Zealand dollars, while 285 million were anticipated.

Technical tips

NZD/USD has surged above 0.6720 for the first time since the very beginning of this year. If the pair continues to rise and breaks the resistance of 0.6750, its next bullish target will be at 0.6790 – the high of July 2019. In the opposite scenario, the move below the psychological mark of 0.6600 will drive the price lower to the support of 0.6520. Follow further news and join the flow!

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Kseniya Medik