NZD/USD: long-term perspectives

NZD/USD: long-term perspectives

2020-12-22 • Updated

If there is a support to be found, that’s right here: in the channel 0.7000 – 0.7010. NZD/USD bounced from it not once during the last six weeks, every time going further into the upside. This logic suggests that what we are seeing now is a downswing that may touch 0.70 before launching the price back upwards again, going beyond 0.7160. Is that possible?

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Hypothetically, yes. The last monthly candles are not the longest ones in the history of NZD/USD over the last 20 years. The fundamental layout has many factors in favor of the weakening of the US dollar – from the Fed’s low-interest-rate monetary policy line to the general loss of interest to the greenback among global investors. Therefore, the US dollar may indeed lose further ground allowing NZD/USD to make further gains in the upside. 0.75 would be the strategic resistance to look at, in the first place – who knows, very possibly, it will be reached in 2021 in a similar manner to the transition from 0.63 to 0.70  in 2015-2016. A stronger move upwards is rather unlikely, therefore, 0.75 seems a realistic upside scenario for the year 2021. Otherwise, 0.63 would be a ground for the performance of NZD/USD in the long-run.

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