Earnings season is a crucial time for investors and analysts, as it provides insights into how well companies have performed over the past quarter and gives indications of their future earnings. In 2023, expectations for US Q1 earnings were low due to economic challenges and rising interest rates. Surprisingly, many companies beat these low expectations, with 75% of S&P 500 companies surpassing forecasts.
OIL: $55 in sight - welcome back up!
2021-01-13 • Updated
The short-term view of the WTI oil price performance gives a perfect picture of an upward march. Crossing $50 per barrel in the first week of January, it went straight to $52, made a brief correction, and reached $54 just a while ago. Does it suggest further upside? Yes. But it also suggests a downward correction. To where it may be? Let’s expand the view.
The mid-term view shows that after the rise to $42 in August, the WTI oil price plunged to $35 in October. Since then, it has been recovering - and, eventually, exceeding - the losses. The current march from $50 to $55 is as aggressive as the initial bullish reversal in October-November. Back then, no downward correction happened after that. Largely, that’s because the upswing itself was a correction after the plunge. But now, the uptrend we are witnessing is no correction – not in the mid-term, at least.
From the strategic perspective, the price is at the doorstep of the pre-virus levels now. Yes, the oil market can celebrate full recovery. At least, from the WTI oil price point of view. $50 is where it was at the end of 2019 - $50 is what it just crossed a while ago. Therefore, any further upside potential can no longer be ascribed to the strategic recoil to the virus plunge in 2020. $50-$65 is the range of the price performance since the end of 2017 – the price is back here now. For this reason, from the mid-term point of view, dropping to $50 just to cool off is a possibility. But in the long run, whether it will make it to $65 is a question to OPEC and fundamental factors.
When I started trading stocks a few years ago, I often needed to pay more attention to my technical analysis skills and trust that the market would play fair according to my analysis. I have since discovered that the safer approach to trading stocks is to, more often than not, seek out investing opportunities - that is, catching stock commodities with a potential to rise.
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