Oil can reach $100; what does it mean for markets and inflation?

Oil can reach $100; what does it mean for markets and inflation?

2022-02-21 • Updated

More and more analysts are sure Brent oil will surpass $100 a barrel. Some of them forecast that $125 and $150 levels will be reached over several months. As oil is one of the most (if not the most) traded commodities in the world, it can't help but impact inflation and financial markets. At least, people think so. So how heavily will oil move the markets, and what will the direction of the movement be? Let's find out!

The correlation of oil and stock market

 An increase in oil prices usually lowers the expected economic growth rate and increases inflation expectations over shorter horizons. Decreasing economic growth prospects, in turn, reduces companies' earnings expectations, resulting in a dampening effect on stock prices. But that's in theory. So let's look at the correlation meter to find out the truth.

imgonline-com-ua-Resize-yLOqjZCbGg.jpg

Here you can see S&P500 (US500) index (orange) compared with XBR/USD (UK Brent oil, blue). In addition, you can find a correlation meter at the bottom of the screen, a tool to measure the correlation between instruments and assets. It is evident that since the crash in March 2020, both US500 and XBR/USD have had a positive correlation. It is opposite to the market expectations of oil and stock price movement and shows that high oil prices don't always mean a slump in stocks.

The truth about oil

We searched the web and found out that researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland looked at movements in the price of oil and stock market prices and discovered that there is little correlation between oil prices and the stock market.

Also, it would be best if you separate correlation and causation. Oil does impact the US economy, but this impact is bidirectional. On the one hand, high oil prices create more jobs in the oil industry and increase investments in shale oil deposits. On the other hand, high oil prices also hit businesses and consumers with higher transportation and manufacturing costs. To be more specific, we can assume that change in oil prices causes money transfer from energy-consuming companies to oil production and vice versa. Oil doesn't drive stock prices because other price factors in the economy—such as wages, interest rates, industrial metals, plastic, and computer technology—can offset changes in energy costs.

In other words, the economy is too complex to expect one commodity to drive all business activity in a predictable way.

What to expect now?

Technically, oil is in a consolidation. A breakout of the $93.00 level will turn on the bullish scenario. However, considering the negative correlation with US500 at the present moment, the latter may decrease even more. The oil may move higher to the resistance of $91.00 per barrel in the short term.

XBR/USD H4 chart

Resistance: 91.00, 93.00, 95.00;

Support: 88.00, 86.00, 81.00

  XBRUSDH4.png

Don't know how to trade oil? Here are some simple steps.

  1. First of all, be sure you've downloaded FBS Trader app or Metatrader 5. FBS allows you to trade stocks only through this software.
  2. Open an account in FBS Trader or the MT5 account in your personal area.
  3. Start trading!

Similar

What Can Drive Oil below $90 a Barrel?
What Can Drive Oil below $90 a Barrel?

The past two years have seen the biggest swings in oil prices in 14 years, which have baffled markets, investors, and traders due to geopolitical tensions and the shift towards clean energy.

Latest news

TRADE IDEA: What's Next for Yen Crosses?
TRADE IDEA: What's Next for Yen Crosses?

The views here are solely based on Technical Analysis techniques using my personal Smart Money approach. Hence, it is important to understand that the trading of CFDs comes at a risk; if not properly managed, you may lose all of your trading capital. To avoid costly mistakes while you look to trade these opportunities, be sure to do your own due diligence and manage your risk appropriately.

TRADE IDEA: BREAKDOWN OF MAJOR PAIRS
TRADE IDEA: BREAKDOWN OF MAJOR PAIRS

Even though we've only witnessed sluggish movements from the Dollar over the past few weeks, the general idea and bias still seem intact and untampered. The bullish impulse however can be seen as "searching for support".

Deposit with your local payment systems

Feel the Team Spirit

Data collection notice

FBS maintains a record of your data to run this website. By pressing the “Accept” button, you agree to our Privacy policy.

Callback

A manager will call you shortly.

Change number

Your request is accepted.

A manager will call you shortly.

Next callback request for this phone number
will be available in

If you have an urgent issue please contact us via
Live chat

Internal error. Please try again later

Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!

Beginner Forex book

Beginner Forex book will guide you through the world of trading.

Beginner Forex book

The most important things to start trading
Enter your e-mail, and we will send you a free Beginner Forex book

Thank you!

We've emailed a special link to your e-mail.
Click the link to confirm your address and get Beginner Forex book for free.

You are using an older version of your browser.

Update it to the latest version or try another one for a safer, more comfortable and productive trading experience.

Safari Chrome Firefox Opera