The oil market is always highly volatile.
Oil market overview
Traders said prices were being supported by strong demand, and also political uncertainty following the U.S. missile air strikes on Syria late last week. Oil-producing Iran and Russia condemned the US military actions and renewed their support to stand by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. If we observe a further escalation of the conflict, the oil prices will probably hit fresh highs.
Brent crude oil futures rose almost to $55.90 on Monday building on their Friday’s gains sparked after the launch of US missiles on Syrian airbase. Geopolitics will probably remain the main factor supporting the rally in oil prices in short-term as the US Navy is heading to the Korean Peninsula to prevent North Korea from resorting to new missile tests.
Additional tailwind for the oil prices was the news that Libya’s Sharara field halted, and the National Oil Corp. declared force majeure on exports. Before the following disruption, Sharara being exempted from the obligations under oil production cut deal had been pumping 200 thousand barrels a day.
The major headwind for the oil futures – revival of the drilling activity in the US. Baker Hughes reported an additional increase in a number of US rigs (it has been rising for 12-straight weeks).
Higher US output can undermine OPEC’s efforts to reduce the oil glut by cutting their own production. But hopes are still intact, as oil producing countries are currently discussing an additional extension of the November output cut deal. Russia, an oil-producing non-OPEC country, has also signaled it is weighing an extension of OPEC-led production cut agreement. Their formal decision will be delivered at the end of May. It will be clear whether OPEC and non-OPEC countries will continue to curb their output and supplies or not. An extension of the accord will allow prices to rebound.
Towards the end of spring, the US crude supply will be partially whittled down as refinery utilization will pick up. At this period of time, US fuel producers typically boost crude processing as they start storing up fuel for the future supply (the demand for fuel normally increases in summer). The excessive utilization of crude oil by US refineries will allow us to wager on the further surges in oil prices.
Narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but rising Tenkan-sen; the bulls could breakout the Kijun’s resistance.
GBP/JPY broke support level 141…
Recommendation: BUY 0,9765 SL 0,971 TP1 0,985 TP2 0,9895…