ONLINE FOREX BROKER
2022-11-01 • Updated
On November 2, the Federal Reserve will make an update on the interest rate and publish the Rate Statement with commentary on economic conditions that influenced their decision. According to the analysts, the Fed will come up with a 75-basis-points rate hike raising the rate to 4%.
Markets are already pricing in this decision. Thus, all attention will be drawn to Powell's rhetoric regarding the next decision at the December 14 meeting. Currently, the chances of another 75-bps hike in December are estimated by the markets at 50.3%. Another 44.4% relates to a 50-point rate hike. Therefore, the Powell Speech can significantly turn the markets one way or another regarding the future actions of the Fed.
However, despite Powell's remarks, the main driver of dollar volatility will be the NFP and the CPI report on November 4 and November 10, respectively. This time, according to analysts' forecast, 200K new jobs are expected in October, against 260K a month earlier. These are rather low expectations. Therefore, as in previous times, the actual result may exceed expectations and boost the US dollar index in the short term. Nevertheless, we have to mention that the previous three times, the USD has fallen two days after the NFP release.
We expect the US dollar to stay under pressure until the CPI release on November 10. Jerome Powell might give a fresh breath to the stock and crypto markets ahead of the 2022 United States elections on November 8, where all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate will be contested. Moreover, as recent history shows, NFP results might boost the greenback, but it usually falls after.
Thus, until the CPI release, we await a bullish rally in XAUUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, US100, US500, and crypto coins.
Buyers are trying to push the US500 index above the 3900 resistance. After the breakout, the way to 4075 will be open.
EURUSD broke above the descending trend line and the 50-day moving average. Moreover, at this moment, the price is testing this breakout, and it seems like the retest will be successful. We expect the pair to reverse toward the 100-day MA, which is currently moving between 1.0050 and 1.0090. Moreover, if the price breaks above this MA, it will move higher to 1.0200.
The Bank of England (BoE) has dramatically shifted its economic forecasts. They no longer expect a recession in the UK and have upgraded their growth projections. This year, the BoE predicts GDP growth of +0.25%, a significant improvement from previous expectations. Next year's forecast is even more optimistic, with a projected growth of 0.75%.
On Wednesday, the US dollar weakened in anticipation of the US CPI data, which could influence market exposure. A Bloomberg survey predicts a year-on-year read of 5.0% to the end of April. Market sentiment is affected by the US debt ceiling and issues with regional banks. While the major APAC equity indices are...
Gold prices have stabilized at around $2,020 ahead of Tuesday's trading session, following last Friday's dip. Recent fluctuations in risk sentiment have been the driving force behind the pricing of the precious metal. How does this look on the charts? Let’s find out.
Let's dive into the latest developments shaping the global economic landscape. Good news first: the threat of an unprecedented US debt crisis has receded, as US lawmakers passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling and avoid a catastrophic default. Phew! But don't pop the champagne just yet, because storm clouds are still looming. High inflation, rising interest rates, and sluggish growth are challenges that have yet to disappear.
Thanks to the incredible advancements in horizontal drilling and fracking technology, the United States has experienced a mind-blowing shale revolution. They've become the heavyweight champion of crude oil production, leaving Saudi Arabia and Russia in the dust. They even turned the tables and became net exporters of refined petroleum products in 2011.
Let's dive into the world of gold. Currently, the price of gold, represented by XAUUSD, is stuck in indecision, hovering around the $1,975 mark. The market is anxiously awaiting two important factors: the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and the extension of the US debt ceiling.
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