Bearish Scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.34, TP2: 78.94, TP3: 78.55, and 78.00 Bullish Scenario: Buys above 78.00 (wait for a retracement to the zone) with TP: 79.34 TP2: 80.00, and TP3: 81.00
RBNZ Surprised the Market Again!
2021-08-18 • Updated
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised the markets again by refraining from raising interest rates a day after the country announced a nationwide lockdown due to multiple covid19 cases in the country. The lockdown should last for three days only, while some cities might last for seven days, which might be an understandable decision by RBNZ.
The kiwi declined sharply after the announcement all the way to 0.6870’s but managed to recover, trading around 0.6950 by the time of writing this note. Such rally comes after the RBNZ kept the door open for tightening soon.
The statement says: ”The Committee agreed that their least regrets policy stance is to further reduce monetary policy stimulus to reduce the risk that inflation expectations become unanchored. However, in light of the current Level 4 lockdown and health uncertainty the Committee agreed to leave the OCR unchanged at this meeting”
In the meantime, with tightening and tapering are still on the table despite the lockdown, NZDUSD remains a good candidate for another long position despite the recent decline and covid19 outbreak.
NZDUSD is trading within a buying zone stands between above the 61.8% Fibo which stands at 0.6876, while stops should not exceed today’s low, with a possibility to regain above 0.70 in the coming days.
Brent crude futures is maintaining stability this Friday, with traders awaiting an OPEC+ meeting that might lead to further supply cuts. Brent crude was down 8 cents at $81.34 a barrel, following a 0.7% drop in the previous session.
China has issued new oil product export quotas to allow oil companies to send surplus barrels overseas, particularly Sinopec, which has the highest volume among quota holders. While the exact quota volume remains undisclosed, oil companies are forecasted to export approximately 3.5 million metric tons of clean oil products in September, a 10% increase from August.
Intraday and swing scenarios based on price action and volume profile.
Brent oil is currently on a bullish trend, facing resistance near $84 and supported by the 200-day EMA. Breaking above this level could lead to a climb towards $90. Short-term support is observed around $80, backed by the 50-day EMA. As summer approaches and travel increases, crude oil tends to benefit from seasonal patterns. Despite temporary setbacks, buying...
Last week I gave a trade idea on XAUUSD with a target around the $2,020 price line. At the time of writing, XAUUSD already exceeded the target and I’m sure that would leave a lot of people wondering what to expect next. Below, I have presented my view of how I expect the price action to turn out in the meantime.