China has issued new oil product export quotas to allow oil companies to send surplus barrels overseas, particularly Sinopec, which has the highest volume among quota holders. While the exact quota volume remains undisclosed, oil companies are forecasted to export approximately 3.5 million metric tons of clean oil products in September, a 10% increase from August.
TD Securities: sell euro, buy dollar
2021-01-26 • Updated
Analysts from TD Securities claimed that "risk sentiment could struggle to find near-term highs just as the global growth backdrop shifts lower, leaving us inclined to hold a sell on rallies posture for the EUR. With this in mind, we implement a short EURUSD position as our Trade of the Week".
The bank sees investor sentiment and the stock market’s performance as key drivers. Indeed, Biden’s stimulus package isn’t likely to be unveiled till mid-March. In combination with the vaccine delays, these issues worsened the sentiment.
Besides, investors express concerns about whether the global stocks are overextended or not. As a result, the backdrop in stock growth increases the demand for the US dollar. Moreover, Fed’s meeting this Wednesday may trigger a pick up in the yields, if the Fed claims to withdraw stimulus earlier than expected. Rising yields will underpin the USD.
TD Securities expects EUR/USD will reach 1.2050 by the end of January.
On the daily chart, EUR/USD is supported by the 50-day moving average at 1.2100, which the pair has failed to cross several times. However, we shouldn’t rule out that the euro may drop below this level amid the current strong fundamentals. Therefore, the breakout of 1.2100 will drive the pair to the low of January 18 and the lower line of Bollinger Bands at 1.2050. The MACD indicator is moving back and forth near the zero line. When the MACD gets below 0 to turn negative, it can be used to confirm a downtrend. Resistance levels are at the recent highs of 1.2200 and 1.2260.
Thanks to the incredible advancements in horizontal drilling and fracking technology, the United States has experienced a mind-blowing shale revolution. They've become the heavyweight champion of crude oil production, leaving Saudi Arabia and Russia in the dust. They even turned the tables and became net exporters of refined petroleum products in 2011.
Oil prices rebounded slightly on Friday but are still expected to show losses for the week due to concerns about slowing growth in the US and China. US crude futures rose 2.7% to $70.41 per barrel, while the Brent contract increased by 2.5% to $74.33 per barrel.
The past several weeks have been a real triumph for the bulls in the oil market. The Brent spot price grew by 8.5% during the last month.
Gold prices are rising for three consecutive days ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged due to declining inflation and a positive economic outlook. Investors are keen on the Fed's interest rate guidance, fearing a hawkish stance that could trigger market risk aversion.
Amid concerns of a Chinese economic slowdown, reports of declining investment often overlook China's efficient investment strategy in emerging sectors for long-term growth. China has taken measures to stabilize foreign and private sector investments, like reducing the reserve requirement ratio to boost investor confidence.