The most important events for the following week. What to expect?

The most important events for the following week. What to expect?

2023-05-12 • Updated

The US Retail sales

May 16th, 14:30 GMT+2.

The US Retail sales are published on Tuesday, May 16th.

Economists expect the fact to become +0.7% in April.

According to the Redbook research, consumption in the US is slowing down. The average growth was 1.4%. A month ago, consumption was growing by 3% on average. This is a negative signal.

On the other hand, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average hourly earnings in April increased. It means that households have more money to spend.

ISM Manufacturing Prices in April increased, while non-Manufacturing prices remained almost at the same level. This is also a signal that consumption may become better.

Logically, economists think the Retail Sales Index is better than the previous one.

If Retail sales are released worse than 0.7%, the USD may fall.

Instruments to trade: EURUSD, USDCAD, XAUUSD

European CPI

May 17th, 11:00 GMT+2.

The European inflation is published on Wednesday, May 17th.

Eurozone consumer inflation expectation dropped to 15.1% (by 370 bp).

The European retail sales in March started falling – consumption is slowing down.

Oil price in April was falling. As a result, we may expect the CPI fact to be lower than the forecast.  In this case, EURUSD may reverse and start dipping.

Instruments to trade: EURUSD, EURAUD, EURNZD

The US Existing home sales (April)

May 18th, 16:00 GMT+2.

The mortgage rate in the US keeps beating its highs. The rate is at 6.5%. The absolute maximum was fixed in October 2022 at 7.16%.

Mortgage applications in April were slowing down (according to Mortgage Bankers Association).

New home sales grew slightly in March after a substantial drawdown in February.

Existing home sales in April will be lower than in March.

The USD is pricing +4.35M. If the fact is even lower, the US dollar will fall.

Instruments to trade: EURUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY

The Canadian Retail Sales (March)

May 19th, 14:30 GMT+2.

Economists think that retail sales in March will drop by 0.6%. Core retail sales are expected to be at -0.1%.

The preliminary fact of Wholesale Sales in March was -0.4% (almost at 0% level). CPI grew by 0.5% MoM.

The situation in the labor market improved. The unemployment rate decreased to 5% — the more labor force on the market – the more considerable consumption.

We think that economists are too pessimistic about the Retail sales in Canada for March. The fact may be higher than -0.6%. The Canadian dollar may rise.

Instruments to trade: USDCAD, EURCAD, AUDCAD

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What to Trade in June
What to Trade in June

Hey guys, this is the last full trading week in May, and many forward-looking individuals like myself are already preparing themselves to seize whatever opportunities June may have in store. On this note, I will review a few commodities that have satisfied my quest for swing-trading opportunities in the coming month. Follow me!

Will GBP Recover Now?
Will GBP Recover Now?

The Bank of England (BoE) has dramatically shifted its economic forecasts. They no longer expect a recession in the UK and have upgraded their growth projections. This year, the BoE predicts GDP growth of +0.25%, a significant improvement from previous expectations. Next year's forecast is even more optimistic, with a projected growth of 0.75%.

Is the Euro Set to Recover Yet?
Is the Euro Set to Recover Yet?

Here's the scoop: The Bank of England (BOE) is set to accelerate the pace at which it shrinks its balance sheet, according to one of its deputy governors. Currently, the BOE is unwinding about £20 billion of quantitative easing every three months. The goal is to reduce the stock by around £80 billion per year through active sales and maturing assets.

Latest news

CAD Outlook Ahead of BoC Overnight Rate
CAD Outlook Ahead of BoC Overnight Rate

Get ready for some suspense as the Bank of Canada faces a tough decision on whether to raise interest rates or keep them on hold. The resilient Canadian economy and the goal of curbing inflation further are at the heart of this dilemma. While some money markets and economists predict another rate hike, others believe the central bank should exercise caution and wait, hinting at a possible increase later in the summer.

Australian GDP: What to Expect
Australian GDP: What to Expect

Let's take a closer look at Australia's recent economic performance. Brace yourselves for some interesting developments. The country's economy experienced its slowest growth since late 2021 in the first quarter, raising doubts about the Reserve Bank of Australia's rapid interest rate increases. Despite the bank's record-breaking 12 rate hikes in the last 13 months, the resource-rich economy only grew by a modest 0.2% in the quarter, falling short of economists' expectations.

Gold and the Majors ahead of the NFP
Gold and the Majors ahead of the NFP

Let's dive into the latest developments shaping the global economic landscape. Good news first: the threat of an unprecedented US debt crisis has receded, as US lawmakers passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling and avoid a catastrophic default. Phew! But don't pop the champagne just yet, because storm clouds are still looming. High inflation, rising interest rates, and sluggish growth are challenges that have yet to disappear.

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