Brent oil is currently on a bullish trend, facing resistance near $84 and supported by the 200-day EMA. Breaking above this level could lead to a climb towards $90. Short-term support is observed around $80, backed by the 50-day EMA. As summer approaches and travel increases, crude oil tends to benefit from seasonal patterns. Despite temporary setbacks, buying...
The Oil Market in the Month of June
2023-06-01 • Updated
Thanks to the incredible advancements in horizontal drilling and fracking technology, the United States has experienced a mind-blowing shale revolution. They've become the heavyweight champion of crude oil production, leaving Saudi Arabia and Russia in the dust. They even turned the tables and became net exporters of refined petroleum products in 2011. Talk about a plot twist! This seismic shift has made the U.S. about 90% self-sufficient in energy consumption, according to the Energy Information Administration. As U.S. oil exports soar, oil imports take a nosedive, which not only helps decrease the trade deficit but also throws the historically strong relationship between oil prices and the U.S. dollar off balance. Buckle up, folks! The oil market is full of surprises. Happy trading!
US Dollar - Daily Timeframe
The US Dollar on the daily timeframe has finally given the first signs of a rejection from the supply zone as highlighted above. The additional confluence from the resistance trendline and the descending array of the moving averages seems to lend even more credence to the possibility of a bearish price action on the US Dollar chart.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bearish
Target: 102.75
Invalidation: 104.71
XTIUSD - Daily Timeframe
As I earlier explained in the first paragraph, the relationship between the value of the Dollar and the price of Oil has seen some drastic changes in recent times. This indicates the possibility of a positive correlation between both commodities. Based on the price action of US Crude trading within the descending channel, and the bearish array of the moving averages, I believe we should get to see XTIUSD drop even further.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bearish
Target: 63.28
Invalidation: 74.49
XBRUSD - Daily Timeframe
Brent may yet continue on its bearish rally due to the confluence of the descending channel and the bearish moving average array. The latest rejection on XBRUSD also seems to have happened from the 50-Day average. I, therefore, expect to see a continued bearish price action until the trendline support is reached.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bearish
Target: 66.73
Invalidation: 78.43
CONCLUSION
The trading of CFDs comes at a risk. Thus, to succeed, you have to manage risks properly. To avoid costly mistakes while you look to trade these opportunities, be sure to do your due diligence and manage your risk appropriately.
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Bearish Scenario: Sales below 78.99 with TP1: 77.93, TP2: 77.45, and upon its breakout TP3: 76.56 and TP4: 75.70 Bullish Scenario: Purchases above 78.00 (wait for a pullback to this area) with TP1: 1679.00 (uncovered POC*), TP2: 79.33, and TP3: 79.66 intraday
Bearish Scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.34, TP2: 78.94, TP3: 78.55, and 78.00 Bullish Scenario: Buys above 78.00 (wait for a retracement to the zone) with TP: 79.34 TP2: 80.00, and TP3: 81.00
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Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...