2023-06-01 • Updated
Thanks to the incredible advancements in horizontal drilling and fracking technology, the United States has experienced a mind-blowing shale revolution. They've become the heavyweight champion of crude oil production, leaving Saudi Arabia and Russia in the dust. They even turned the tables and became net exporters of refined petroleum products in 2011. Talk about a plot twist! This seismic shift has made the U.S. about 90% self-sufficient in energy consumption, according to the Energy Information Administration. As U.S. oil exports soar, oil imports take a nosedive, which not only helps decrease the trade deficit but also throws the historically strong relationship between oil prices and the U.S. dollar off balance. Buckle up, folks! The oil market is full of surprises. Happy trading!
The US Dollar on the daily timeframe has finally given the first signs of a rejection from the supply zone as highlighted above. The additional confluence from the resistance trendline and the descending array of the moving averages seems to lend even more credence to the possibility of a bearish price action on the US Dollar chart.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bearish
Target: 102.75
Invalidation: 104.71
As I earlier explained in the first paragraph, the relationship between the value of the Dollar and the price of Oil has seen some drastic changes in recent times. This indicates the possibility of a positive correlation between both commodities. Based on the price action of US Crude trading within the descending channel, and the bearish array of the moving averages, I believe we should get to see XTIUSD drop even further.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bearish
Target: 63.28
Invalidation: 74.49
Brent may yet continue on its bearish rally due to the confluence of the descending channel and the bearish moving average array. The latest rejection on XBRUSD also seems to have happened from the 50-Day average. I, therefore, expect to see a continued bearish price action until the trendline support is reached.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bearish
Target: 66.73
Invalidation: 78.43
The trading of CFDs comes at a risk. Thus, to succeed, you have to manage risks properly. To avoid costly mistakes while you look to trade these opportunities, be sure to do your due diligence and manage your risk appropriately.
You can access more of such trade ideas and prompt market updates on the telegram channel.
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Brent oil is currently on a bullish trend, facing resistance near $84 and supported by the 200-day EMA. Breaking above this level could lead to a climb towards $90. Short-term support is observed around $80, backed by the 50-day EMA. As summer approaches and travel increases, crude oil tends to benefit from seasonal patterns. Despite temporary setbacks, buying...
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
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