The RBA Expects More Rate Hikes - Philp Lowe

The RBA Expects More Rate Hikes - Philp Lowe

2022-09-08 • Updated

"When I spoke at the Anika Foundation event last year, CPI inflation in Australia had been below 2 percent for a number of years and, in underlying terms, was just 1.6 percent. Today, CPI inflation has risen to 6.1 percent, and underlying inflation is 4.9 percent. These are the highest rates in many years." - Lowe.

Speaking at the Anika Foundation Fundraiser in Sydney, the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia revealed that the current discrepancies between the annual inflation forecasts and the actual values have caught everyone by surprise. Last year, the RBA forecasted 2022 inflation rates to be just 1.75%, whereas so far this year, there are reasons to expect 7.75% CPI inflation rates - a big forecast miss! To counteract this, Mr. Lowe has established the need for the RBA to continue hiking interest rates in hopes of reaching the flexible inflation rate targets. He made it clear, however, that the pace of hikes would be much slower.


As we expect continued hikes in interest rates from the RBA and forecasted increases in unemployment rates by the national statistical office of Canada (to be released Friday, 09th September), fundamental factors seem to support a bullish correction on AUDCAD. Technically speaking, the market is trading close to the Daily Support at 0.87922 and has retested a major trendline from 2020.



The Daily Support zone between 1.11008 and 1.10750 is already within reach of the current price action on AUDNZD, and offers the Moving Average 50 and a major trendline as a confluence(img.02)



The major trendline aside, price is also trading between the daily support zone at 0.67399 & 0.66633, thus increasing the chances of a bullish correction, possibly back to the 50-MA or even higher.



CAD: Markets Await GDP Release
CAD: Markets Await GDP Release

During the Asian session on Wednesday, the USD/CAD pair rebounded after two days of losses, reaching around 1.3590. This uptick is fueled by a stronger US dollar and lower crude oil prices, which put pressure on the Canadian dollar. The decline in Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices to approximately $80.70 is attributed to...

Trade of The Week: AUDNZD Trade Breakdown
Trade of The Week: AUDNZD Trade Breakdown

The Australian Dollar (AUD) rebounds on Monday, despite a slight dip in the US Dollar (USD) and higher US Treasury yields. Investors are eyeing Australian monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February and US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q4 2023. The AUD gains momentum as the ASX 200 Index rises, especially in mining and energy sectors. Additionally, the Aussie...

XAUUSD: Markets Slow Down Ahead of NFP
XAUUSD: Markets Slow Down Ahead of NFP

Gold prices rose on Monday as the US Dollar weakened amidst speculation about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts starting in June. This weakened Dollar was partly due to improved risk sentiment pushing US Treasury yields lower. Despite facing challenges from declining yields, gold prices recovered to nearly $2,170 per troy ounce, driven by the Dollar's weakness. Federal Reserve Chair...

Latest news

USD: Powell Speaks on Cutting Interest Rates
USD: Powell Speaks on Cutting Interest Rates

Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...

WTT: Currency Pairs To Trade In April
WTT: Currency Pairs To Trade In April

Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.

Deposit with your local payment systems

Data collection notice

FBS maintains a record of your data to run this website. By pressing the “Accept” button, you agree to our Privacy policy.


A manager will call you shortly.

Change number

Your request is accepted.

A manager will call you shortly.

Next callback request for this phone number
will be available in

If you have an urgent issue please contact us via
Live chat

Internal error. Please try again later

Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!

You are using an older version of your browser.

Update it to the latest version or try another one for a safer, more comfortable and productive trading experience.

Safari Chrome Firefox Opera