ONLINE FOREX BROKER
2022-12-28 • Updated
The US Dollar has been remarkably sluggish for the past few weeks despite being within a distinct Demand zone. My expectation of a springing rebound off the demand zone has not exactly played out yet, however, the zone remains unbroken. The formation of a wedge pattern right on top of the demand zone also serves as an additional reason to hold on to my bullish bias in the meantime.
On the Daily timeframe, Gold seems to be driving hard within the wedge as it retests the supply zone from the previous break of structure. At the moment, my overall bias is still bearish based on the DXY correlation. Let's see the lower timeframe though.
This chart gives us a clearer view of what we saw earlier on the Daily timeframe. Here however there is an interesting scenario of an induced 'false breakout'. The bias remains bearish, however, a break and retest of the wedge pattern would be a safer entry. Can the H1 timeframe possibly provide more insight? Let's see.
Here on the 1-hour timeframe we see a classic AMD schematic (Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution - AMD), where the highlighted area serves as the supply zone, I would personally be watching out for. This would be my initial entry pending the break of the wedge pattern on the H4.
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A comparative examination of the strength of the US-Dollar often gives tangible insight into the direction of Gold (XAUUSD). The chart above indicates the expectation of a bullish price reaction from the demand zone
For those who may be unfamiliar with Price Action trading, the horizontal arrows represent areas where the market structure was broken. As you can see in the scenario above, price broke below the previous low at the two marked instances
Usually, the Dollar and GOLD are negatively correlated. This means that the stronger the US-Dollar becomes, the lower Gold prices will be as many more investors will prefer liquid investments. Times of crises and the need to safeguard funds are the major exceptions to this.
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