Forecast for June 22

Thursday mixed economic data didn’t let the US dollar index to break the psychological level at $95. Philly Fed manufacturing index was weaker than anticipated, however, unemployment claims data appeared to be more positive than the forecast. Mixed data were not an encouraging factor for the USD, as a result, it’s falling trading near $94.60. The support lies at $94.

As the USD is weak on Thursday, other currencies managed to recover. EUR/USD pair rebounded from the support at 1.1550. As a result, the pair is moving to the resistance at 1.1670. On Friday, a lot of economic data will be released.

If the actual data are greater than the forecast ones, the pair will be able to reach the resistance. Otherwise, it will come back to the support at 1.1550
The pound got a boost from the Bank of England. Of course, the interest rate wasn’t changed, however, the number of members who voted to keep the interest rate unchanged declined. As a result, 3 members were for the rate hike, 6 voted to hold the interest rate. It means that the central bank is closer to a rate hike. As a result of the optimistic central bank’s meeting, the pound broke the resistance at 1.3180 and is moving up. On H4, you can see that 50-hour MA at 1.3280 is the next level to break. If the pair is able to do that, the next resistance is at 1.3310. On Friday, no important Britain economic data will be released. As a result, there are risks of the pullback to 1.3180.

Friday will be an important day for the Canadian dollar. Firstly, a lot of economic data will be released. CPI and retail sales forecasts are encouraging. As a result, if the actual data are greater than the forecast ones, the Canadian dollar will appreciate.

Moreover, OPEC and its allies will meet to make an agreement on the future supply. If they agree to increase the production, oil will go down and as a result, the Canadian dollar will depreciate. Up to now, the USD/CAD pair is coming back to the support at 1.3290. Friday movement will depend on the economic data and OPEC meeting. If news for the CAD is encouraging, the pair will break the support and will move down. Otherwise, it will stay within 1.3290-1.3380.

Darya Bobrova

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14.08.2018 06:45 USD/CAD: sellers lost the initiative

On the daily chart, bears tried to form “Three Indians”, 1-2-3 and “Bat” with 88.6% target but failed to bring USD/CAD to an important support at 1.2925.

usd cad