On the daily chart, bears are trying to keep USD/JPY inside the long-term downtrend channel.
Trading forecast for June 26
- The US dollar index is trading near the psychological level at $94. If the index closes below this level on Monday, the further fall may be anticipated. On Tuesday, traders will look at CB consumer confidence data (17:00 MT time) and a speech from the Federal Open Market Committee’s member (20:00 MT time). The forecast for the economic data isn’t encouraging, however, if the actual data is greater than the forecast, the index will be able to recover. Moreover, if the Committee’s member gives some positive clues on the future monetary policy, the USD will be stronger. However, a great rise to previous highs near $95 isn’t anticipated.
- The euro is trying to return its positions. EUR/USD strongly plunged on June 14, after the European Central Bank announced a more cautious approach to the rate hikes. Up to now, the pair is moving to the resistance at 1.1720. No important economic data will be released on Tuesday. As a result, if the USD is weaker, the euro will be able to break the resistance and appear near previous highs. Otherwise, it will return to the pivot point at 1.1615.
- The pound is trying to go up. The GBP/USD pair is trading above the pivot point at 1.3225, however, a trendline may become a resistance for the pair again. On Tuesday, traders should have a look at speeches from Monetary Policy Committee’s members (12:00 and 12:30 MT time). They may give clues on the future monetary policy of the Central Bank. If clues are encouraging and the USD is weaker, the pound will be able to break the resistance at 1.33 (the trendline). Otherwise, the pair will return to the support at 1.3225.
- Trade tensions support the Japanese yen. USD/JPY tested the support at 109.70. But 50-day MA is weighing on the pair and may become an additional support for it. As a result, if it’s able to close below these levels on Monday, the further fall is anticipated. Otherwise, traders should be careful and follow the USD’s movement. In case, the USD is stronger, the pair will return to the resistance at 110.20.
On the daily chart, EUR/JPY reached 88.6% target of the “Bat”.
Bearish Ichimoku Cloud with horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with horizontal lines.
Narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but rising Tenkan-sen; the bulls could breakout the Kijun’s resistance.
GBP/JPY broke support level 141…
Recommendation: BUY 0,9765 SL 0,971 TP1 0,985 TP2 0,9895…