The pair is greatly influenced by the constant changes in global risk sentiment as well as the policy of the central banks.
Trading plan for June 20
- Wednesday is full of speeches of central banks’ Heads. Mr. Lowe, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Mr. Draghi, the President of the European Central Bank, Mr. Kuroda, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, and Mr. Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve will participate in a panel discussion at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking, in Portugal (16:30 MT time).
Traders should take into consideration their speeches as there is a possibility of clues on the monetary policy. As a result, the domestic currencies may be affected.
- The US dollar index is trying to recover. Although Tuesday economic data were mixed (building permits data was weaker than anticipated; housing starts data appeared to be greater than the forecast), the index is rising. Up to now, it is near the resistance at $95. If it’s able to close Tuesday trading above this level, the further rise is anticipated. On Wednesday, traders will look at a speech of the Fed Chairman Mr. Powell, current account and existing home sales data. If Mr. Powell sounds hawkish and the economic data are greater than anticipated, the US dollar index will rise further. Otherwise, the support lies at $94.
- Wednesday will have important data for the oil market and the Canadian dollar as well as they are correlated. If you want to get clues on their further movements, you should look at crude oil inventories data (17:30 MT time). The forecast isn’t encouraging for the oil market (a decline of oil inventories is less than last week), however, the further movement of oil benchmarks will depend on the actual data. If the actual data will be greater than the forecast one, Brent and WTI will fall. And as a result, the Canadian dollar won’t have chances to recover. Otherwise, both oil benchmarks will go up and the Canadian dollar will appreciate against the USD.
On Tuesday, Brent couldn’t break the resistance at $75.72 (50-day MA) and it fell. Up to now, it’s moving to the resistance at $74.37. The further direction will depend on the crude oil inventories data. Greater economic data will pull Brent to $74.37. Weaker data will boost Brent above $75.72.
WTI is falling as well. It tested 100-day MA but couldn’t stick above it and fell breaking the support at $65.25. If the economic data is weaker than the forecast, WTI will be above $65.25, otherwise, the support is at $63.30.
On Tuesday, the USD/CAD pair tested the resistance at 1.3290. If it able to close above the resistance the further rise is anticipated. Otherwise, the Canadian dollar will have chances to rise. Wednesday movement will depend on the direction of the oil market. If Brent and WTI will appreciate, the USD/CAD will go down. The support lies at 1.3120. Otherwise, the pair will move further to the next resistance at 1.3380.
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