2020-10-05 • Updated
Until very recently, the race for the presidency and winning the voters was a known drama with a preset scenario: a number of ugly public clashes between Trump and Biden over in the course of debates, then the final voting in November, and then it’s done. Obviously, there is a number of deviation possibilities expected to this scenario, but still, the general scheme is pretty clear. If you can call that “clear”. But several days ago, it became even more twisted than before. Donald Trump got COVID-19. It happened on Thursday, actually, when the first test got out, but the public announcement was held back until later on to make sure that a more formidable medical confirmation gives the same positive result. The market got down, such a disappointment, and all of a sudden, so many more negative possibilities out there, and all right just a month ahead of the presidential campaign… What now?
Now, Donald Trump – as a true politician and public “architect” – took this virus and made it a part of his presidential campaign. The logic here is “I have the virus. Biden hasn’t. So I’ll make it my weapon against him now”. When you look at what’s been happening during the last two days from this angle, everything becomes clear. And you can expect more of that. That we cannot possibly know the true status of Donald Trump’s health – is a fact. But he, as a politician, is not interested to disclose this fact. He needs tension. He doesn’t want to show an easy victory over the illness just in two days – he wants to use the “marketing resource” of being sick with COVID-19 to the maximum. So he drives out the Walter Reed Hospital and waves a hand to his supporters who shout “we love Trump” and “God bless our president”. Never mind that it is not advised to get out of the isolation in any way – even if you are a US president – as long as you have COVID-19, and Trump not only endangers the people around him but makes people gather around the hospital when they are supposed to socially distance. In the end – whenever it is – Trump will credit the victory over the virus to his public image. So he hopes, at least.
We don’t really know what’s happening to him and how severe is his particular case of COVID-19. We know that he has been given several drugs that are given to different types of patients at different stages of the illness. His health advisors are giving contradictory information and, in some cases, openly admit that they don’t immediately disclose the true reality of the president’s sickness. It was said that Donald Trump is for discharge this Monday but again – how far that is from the truth, we cannot possibly know. Observers are complaining at the same absence of credible information or lack of it. So all we can do now is wait until the sun rises in the US…
In general, Forex seems to be pretty alive. No strong trends favoring particular currencies are visible in response to the “miraculous recovery” of the US President – rather, some corrections.
USD/JPY got back up into the channel from the range of 105.00 – 105.20. the 200-MA is still the first resistance to be crossed.
EUR/GBP keeps descending as it has been, from the September high of 0.9260 to the lows of 0.9040. the latter is a fresh bottom, although the price touched it on September 28 already. Currently, it’s marching upwards in a bullish bounce.
EUR/USD, as the pair which is “most concerned” with the US President’s health just goes through volatility – what else can you expect… It dropped from 1.1735 to 1.1705, then got back to 1.1735, and now it is again looking downwards - probably, against at 1.1705.
Gold rose to $1 915 on the fears of what more can go wrong because of Donald Trump’s illness. But after that, it dropped back to $1 890 saying “ok so he is getting better, no boost for me then”. The general trajectory is still uptrend though, just the sudden spike has been corrected.
As you can see, the reaction is pretty diverse, somewhere muted, and contradictory. As expected with Donald Trump, right? Anyway, let's wish him the soonest recovery - aside from all poslitics - and stay updated.
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Thanks to the incredible advancements in horizontal drilling and fracking technology, the United States has experienced a mind-blowing shale revolution. They've become the heavyweight champion of crude oil production, leaving Saudi Arabia and Russia in the dust. They even turned the tables and became net exporters of refined petroleum products in 2011.
Oil prices rebounded slightly on Friday but are still expected to show losses for the week due to concerns about slowing growth in the US and China. US crude futures rose 2.7% to $70.41 per barrel, while the Brent contract increased by 2.5% to $74.33 per barrel.
The past several weeks have been a real triumph for the bulls in the oil market. The Brent spot price grew by 8.5% during the last month.
Gold prices are rising for three consecutive days ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged due to declining inflation and a positive economic outlook. Investors are keen on the Fed's interest rate guidance, fearing a hawkish stance that could trigger market risk aversion.
Amid concerns of a Chinese economic slowdown, reports of declining investment often overlook China's efficient investment strategy in emerging sectors for long-term growth. China has taken measures to stabilize foreign and private sector investments, like reducing the reserve requirement ratio to boost investor confidence.
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