2021-07-19 • Updated
During June 2021, the US dollar index has gained 2.3%, which is the biggest run since March 2020. The main reason for the greenback’s growth is FOMC’S June meeting, where US officials signaled that they expect rates to climb already in 2022. Then, Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned that the central bank started to talk about economic stimulus reduction.
Overbought is the other fact that makes investors to hedge their positions in the stock market. S&P500 gained 101% since March 2020 crush, Nasdaq grew by 125% in the same period. Regular investors are extremely scared and ready to fix their profits since fears about rising inflation could push the central bank to raise the key rate.
Source: https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
At the moment, the US dollar index is showing an opposite correlation with Treasury yields. The same scenario had happened last year but oppositely. Investors betted on the currency falling while yields moved higher in anticipation of economic reopening.
Risk assets can get under pressure while the US dollar is strengthening. As one of the most speculative assets, Bitcoin boomed against the greenback by 2000% after March 2020 might be in danger. It already dropped by 50% from its record high of about $65.000.
Meanwhile, some analytics relate to the position that Bitcoin might keep its growth after overcoming worries related to the recent China crypto mining ban.
US Dollar Index Daily chart
On the daily chart, reversed “head-and-shoulder” has been formed with an estimated target at the level of 97. As soon as the price breaks the resistance at the level of 93.5, it will head towards the main target. This move allows the US dollar to appreciate by 4.5% against a basket of currencies.
As an example, let’s look at the weekly chart AUDUSD.
US dollar index growth will lead the price to fall with targets at 0.725, 0.712, 0.7, and finally 0.68.
China has issued new oil product export quotas to allow oil companies to send surplus barrels overseas, particularly Sinopec, which has the highest volume among quota holders. While the exact quota volume remains undisclosed, oil companies are forecasted to export approximately 3.5 million metric tons of clean oil products in September, a 10% increase from August.
Thanks to the incredible advancements in horizontal drilling and fracking technology, the United States has experienced a mind-blowing shale revolution. They've become the heavyweight champion of crude oil production, leaving Saudi Arabia and Russia in the dust. They even turned the tables and became net exporters of refined petroleum products in 2011.
Oil prices rebounded slightly on Friday but are still expected to show losses for the week due to concerns about slowing growth in the US and China. US crude futures rose 2.7% to $70.41 per barrel, while the Brent contract increased by 2.5% to $74.33 per barrel.
Welcome to October, the tenth month of 2023. For this installment of What to Trade, I have handpicked a few of my favorite trade ideas for the month. Let’s go over a few of them.
The past several weeks have been a real triumph for the bulls in the oil market. The Brent spot price grew by 8.5% during the last month.
Gold prices are rising for three consecutive days ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged due to declining inflation and a positive economic outlook. Investors are keen on the Fed's interest rate guidance, fearing a hawkish stance that could trigger market risk aversion.
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Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
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