2019-11-11 • Updated
In line with our expectations, the US dollar continued its broad consolidation. It was an eventful week for the greenback.
Firstly, we have to mention the escalating tensions between the United States and North Korea. There’s talk that North Korea is preparing for a nuclear test and, according to the US President Donald Trump, the Asian country is a problem that "will be taken care of". In addition, the US has dropped its largest non-nuclear device on Islamic State in Afghanistan. The development of these tensions will be an important factor for financial markets next week. The escalation isn’t good for the US currency.
The second important thing is that Trump has once again tried to talk the US dollar down by mentioning that he favored low-interest rates and saying that the USD was "getting too strong".
All in all, it seems that the US economy is in a good shape for the Federal Reserve to keep raising interest rates, but the recent news flow has distracted the market from this prospect.
In the coming days pay attention to Empire State manufacturing index on Monday, housing and industrial production figures on Tuesday, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index on Thursday and existing home sales together with the FOMC member Kashkari’s speech on Friday. In addition, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will speak on Thursday and may give more details about the border adjustment tax and incoming fiscal policies.
The USD index met resistance around 101.20, near resistance from January highs and is going to post weekly losses. Support is located in the 100.00 area ahead of 99.10/00 and 98.50. A break above 101.35 is needed to open the way up to 102.10/25.
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Bearish Scenario: Sales below 78.99 with TP1: 77.93, TP2: 77.45, and upon its breakout TP3: 76.56 and TP4: 75.70 Bullish Scenario: Purchases above 78.00 (wait for a pullback to this area) with TP1: 1679.00 (uncovered POC*), TP2: 79.33, and TP3: 79.66 intraday
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
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