2019-11-11 • Updated
During the past week, the US dollar index (DXY) has been fluctuating around the 98.90 level.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at May meeting and downplayed weak first-quarter economic growth, bolstering market expectations for the central bank to raise interest rates in June. According to the futures market, the odds of a rate hike next month rose to 74%.
American nonfarm payrolls added 211K in April, the unemployment rate declined to 4.4% and average earnings gained by 0.3%. Despite these good figures, USD bulls stayed on the cautious side. Some weakness of the greenback may be related to the fact that the readings for March were revised to the downside.
Donald Trump finally managed to pull the Health Care bill through the House of Representatives, but it’s still not clear whether he’ll manage to succeed in the Senate, where Republicans hold a slimmer majority. The success of this law will push the USD up as traders will become more optimistic about the future tax reform, which also needs the green light from the Congress. For now, the situation with tax reform remains uncertain depriving the USD of the important bullish driver.
In the coming days, the most important releases in American economic calendar will be on Thursday (PPI, unemployment claims) and Friday (CPI, retail sales, preliminary consumer sentiment). Comments from the Federal Reserve members late on Friday will shape the market’s expectations about the Fed’s actions in June and will determine the sentiment about the American currency.
DXY stayed below the former support line from 2016 lows and below 200-day MA located just above 99.00. The greenback remains vulnerable for a decline to 97.55 (100-week MA, July 2016 highs). The 50-week MA at 98.45 is acting as support. Return above 99.30 is needed for the bulls to regain power. The next stops will likely be 100.00 and 100.45.
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Bearish Scenario: Sales below 78.99 with TP1: 77.93, TP2: 77.45, and upon its breakout TP3: 76.56 and TP4: 75.70 Bullish Scenario: Purchases above 78.00 (wait for a pullback to this area) with TP1: 1679.00 (uncovered POC*), TP2: 79.33, and TP3: 79.66 intraday
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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