2019-11-11 • Updated
The US dollar fell to a 9-month low versus a basket of currencies. Market participants still don’t believe that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more times this year. At the same time, traders interpreted communication from other central banks – primarily the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada – in a hawkish way.
The upcoming days will contain a lot of important events for the greenback. ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday will provide an update on the current state of US economic activity. The FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday will give insights into the thinking of the Fed. It’s worth remembering that the central bank’s June statement was rather hawkish, so this release may offer the US currency a chance for some upward correction. Thursday will bring ISM services PMI, oil inventories and ADP employment report, while on Friday there are plenty of reasons to expect a spike in volatility as nonfarm payrolls (NFP) will be out. In addition, the Fed will release monetary policy report, which is published twice a year. The document will contain a summary of discussions of the conduct of monetary policy and economic developments and prospects for the future.
The US dollar index (DXY) fell to 95.22, the lowest level since September 2016. The asset breached support at 96.40 (bottom of the sideways range and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 2016-2017 advance). This area will now play the role of significant resistance. Bears have already reached the target of the broken sideways range (rectangle), but there’s still space until the next Fibo level on the downside lies at 94.40. Good data out of the US and hawkish comments of the Fed members are needed to save the USD from further declines.
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Bearish Scenario: Sales below 78.99 with TP1: 77.93, TP2: 77.45, and upon its breakout TP3: 76.56 and TP4: 75.70 Bullish Scenario: Purchases above 78.00 (wait for a pullback to this area) with TP1: 1679.00 (uncovered POC*), TP2: 79.33, and TP3: 79.66 intraday
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
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