After the bullish start of the year, the rand has started to weaken since the last Thursday. Let’s point out the main factors affecting the ZAR and set the key levels for this week’s trading.
US dollar: outlook for May 22-26
US dollar had the worst week in 9 months. The greenback was hit hard by the political turmoil in the United States. The hype was caused by Donald Trump's firing of former FBI director James Comey, talk that he pressed Comey to stop investigating his former national security chief, and his campaign's alleged ties with Russia. There are concerns not only that the President may be impeached, but also that the fiscal stimulus he promised will be unlikely anytime soon.
We can now clearly see that the US dollar index recoiled down from the previous support and now resistance line in the 99.50 area. It seems like the index has formed a triple top with the neckline at 99.15 and is vulnerable to a decline to 94.70. Daily moving averages turned to the downside. DXY is trading below 50% Fibonacci of 2016-2017 advance. The next Fibo level lies at 96.40. A weekly close below the 100-week MA at 97.65 will be a very bearish sign. Resistance is at 98.65 and 99.20.
In the coming days pay attention to the FOMC May meeting minutes on Wednesday and core durable goods together with preliminary Q1 GDP on Friday. The Federal Reserve is still widely expected to raise interest rates in June after a rather optimistic May statement. However, as next month’s rate hike is already significantly priced in, so we don’t see how it can provide much strength to the US currency.
The problems of Trump administration should remain in the center of the market’s attention. In addition, analysts warn that risks associated with North Korea have increased and advise to prepare for high volatility in the short-term.
If we look at the daily charts of the US dollar index and the USD/JPY pair, we will see a misleading trend.
Britain has to leave the European Union in 66 days. Will it leave with a trade deal (good for the GBP) or without one (bad for the GBP)?
The last "Pennant" pattern has been broken, so bulls found resistance at 1.2915. Nevertheless, the market is likely going to move on, so we should...
USD/CHF remains weak across the board and stays strong with a bearish consolidation below the 200 SMA at H1 chart…
There's no any reversal pattern so far, so the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance area in the short term...