ONLINE FOREX BROKER
2019-11-11 • Updated
The US dollar was lower against most of its major peers since the very start of the week, pressured by a round of disappointing economic data and by gains made by commodity-sensitive currencies as crude oil futures spiked to its highest level since late April. Saudi Arabia and Russia said they would extend the production cut agreement for another nine months.
The greenback fell after the Empire manufacturing index posted a massive drop to -1.0 from the prior month reading of 5.2. That data came after the missing retail sales and below estimates CPI data released last Friday. The US dollar index was down for the fourth day. It is near 98.44 of writing from last-Thursday’s high at 99.77.
Source: Investing.com
Strategy research teams of major banks commented the recent weakening of the USD and indicated underlying factor that will influence the US currency in the near-term future.
The TD strategists note that USD was hit by Friday’s disappointing releases of US retail sales and CPI data.
TD recommends buying USD dips against GBP from current levels into 1.29. They expect a softer retail sales headline (the figures will be released on Thursday at 11:30 am MT time), which is likely to make sterling vulnerable in the near term. The bank’s analysts remain sellers of GBP as the positive outcome of the UK general elections is already priced in and Britain’s data starts deteriorating.
Credit Agricole analysts believe that the missing US CPI data validates the flatness of the front end of the yield curve and thus prevents USD from going higher. It also offers a solid support to the risk environment and emerging market currencies.
The CA’s analysts note that this week is very light in terms of economic data, so the USD might see some further selling pressure.
BTMU FX strategists outline the three factors that are working together against USD:
The analysts are bearish on the USD. They expect a 4% drop in the DXY index at the end of the Q1 2018. They believe that Fed’s multiple hikes will unlikely provide much support for the USD as other central banks are determined to limit the scope for any shift in yield spread in favor of the greenback.
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The Bank of England (BoE) has dramatically shifted its economic forecasts. They no longer expect a recession in the UK and have upgraded their growth projections. This year, the BoE predicts GDP growth of +0.25%, a significant improvement from previous expectations. Next year's forecast is even more optimistic, with a projected growth of 0.75%.
Here's the scoop: The Bank of England (BOE) is set to accelerate the pace at which it shrinks its balance sheet, according to one of its deputy governors. Currently, the BOE is unwinding about £20 billion of quantitative easing every three months. The goal is to reduce the stock by around £80 billion per year through active sales and maturing assets.
Let's dive into the latest developments shaping the global economic landscape. Good news first: the threat of an unprecedented US debt crisis has receded, as US lawmakers passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling and avoid a catastrophic default. Phew! But don't pop the champagne just yet, because storm clouds are still looming. High inflation, rising interest rates, and sluggish growth are challenges that have yet to disappear.
Thanks to the incredible advancements in horizontal drilling and fracking technology, the United States has experienced a mind-blowing shale revolution. They've become the heavyweight champion of crude oil production, leaving Saudi Arabia and Russia in the dust. They even turned the tables and became net exporters of refined petroleum products in 2011.
Let's dive into the world of gold. Currently, the price of gold, represented by XAUUSD, is stuck in indecision, hovering around the $1,975 mark. The market is anxiously awaiting two important factors: the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and the extension of the US debt ceiling.
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