US stocks: this is the end of Trump-led rally?

US stocks: this is the end of Trump-led rally?

2019-11-11 • Updated

US stocks eased substantially after investors shifted to safe-haven assets on the rising US tensions with Russia, North Korea, and Syria. On Wednesday, US equities extended their losses after Trump’s comments on the US dollar and interest-rate policy. Market participants have become concerned with the fact that recent geopolitical developments might distract US President from pursuing pro-business policies (tax cuts, deregulation, higher infrastructure spending) he promised to deliver in the course of the election campaign.

We also need to note here that the passage of pro-growth policies is hindered by a parliamentary branch of power. A failure to repeal Obamacare bill has raised doubts about Trump’s negotiating skills. Now, it is not clear whether he manages to overhaul taxes, loosen Wall Street regulations and increase infrastructure spending and other policies that boosted Wall Street to its record highs.

At the present moment, the S&P 500 is trading mostly sideways within the range of 2321.90 – 2380 seeking for new market drivers to rally to the new highs/slump to the new lows. On the upside, there is a strong hurdle at 2400.32 (S&P 500 historical high) that will unlikely be hit again in the near term. There is a scope for a further downfall, however, towards 2320 (the lower border of the aforementioned consolidation range).

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down to 20,590 as investors departed from high-risk financial assets.  A further downfall to 20,400 (March 27 low) is not ruled out until we get additional clarifications on Trump’s pro-growth policies.  

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