The upcoming August inflation data may send mixed signals. The 12-month headline inflation rate is expected to rise to 3.6%, causing concerns for the Biden administration. However, core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, is projected to decrease to 4.3%, aligning with the Federal Reserve's goals. Past price trends influence both figures, so looking at recent data for a more accurate picture is crucial.
USD/BRL: wait for the opportunity
2019-12-09 • Updated
SELL 7.1250; TP 4.0910; SL 4.1355
USD/BRL has started the week with a substantial move to the downside. The pair formed a lower high last week, thus the price action strongly resembles the “Head and Shoulders” pattern. The daily close below 4.1655 will confirm the bearish scenario. At the same time, selling at the current levels seems premature as there’s support in the form of the 50-day MA (4.1355) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the October-November advance (4.1275). A new wave of selling will occur if the pair falls below the latter. The target in this case will be at 4.0910 (61.8% Fibo). Before there’s a breakout, the price may consolidate above the mentioned support for some time. A return above 4.21 is needed to return powers to bulls.
The odds of a final interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year have dropped after US job openings hit their lowest levels since early 2021. This has led to a correction in the US Dollar as traders reduced their bets on further rate hikes.
Here we go again, my friends. It’s time to look critically into the future of what trading opportunities September might have in store for us. As always, it is essential to note that the views expressed here are mine and should not be considered financial advice without proper examination.
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