The past two years have seen the biggest swings in oil prices in 14 years, which have baffled markets, investors, and traders due to geopolitical tensions and the shift towards clean energy.
USD/CAD: ahead of US jobless data and Powell’s speech
2021-01-14 • Updated
USD/CAD pulled back from the support of 1.2665. However, after a short jump the pair is likely to start falling again as both short- and long-term trends are downward. If the loonie manages to break through the support of 1.2665, the way down to the low of January 6 at 1.2650 will be clear. The resistance is at the upper trendline of 1.2700. The pair isn’t likely to cross it on the first try, but if it jumps above it, the way up to the 200-hour moving average of 1.2715 will be clear.
Important news to follow
1. The US unemployment claims will be out at 15:30 MT time and will impact significantly the pair. Analysts forecasted 785 000. If the US data is better than expected, USD/CAD will rise. Otherwise – drop.
2. Elsewhere, Fed’s head Jerome Powell will hold a meeting at 19:30 MT time, where he would share economic forecast. This event should grab greater attention than it does usually as there has been some considerable talk from the Fedaround cutting the current pace of bond purchases. Analysts consider that the most probable outcome of this is an increase of the US Treasury yield which should drive the USD further up in the near term.
Overall, technical indicators in combination with fundamentals point to the further falling of USD/CAD.
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The views here are solely based on Technical Analysis techniques using my personal Smart Money approach. Hence, it is important to understand that the trading of CFDs comes at a risk; if not properly managed, you may lose all of your trading capital. To avoid costly mistakes while you look to trade these opportunities, be sure to do your own due diligence and manage your risk appropriately.
Even though we've only witnessed sluggish movements from the Dollar over the past few weeks, the general idea and bias still seem intact and untampered. The bullish impulse however can be seen as "searching for support".
Suddenly, the US Dollar Index fell 6.70% over the last two weeks, marking the biggest decrease in the currency since 2020.