2021-01-14 • Updated
USD/CAD pulled back from the support of 1.2665. However, after a short jump the pair is likely to start falling again as both short- and long-term trends are downward. If the loonie manages to break through the support of 1.2665, the way down to the low of January 6 at 1.2650 will be clear. The resistance is at the upper trendline of 1.2700. The pair isn’t likely to cross it on the first try, but if it jumps above it, the way up to the 200-hour moving average of 1.2715 will be clear.
1. The US unemployment claims will be out at 15:30 MT time and will impact significantly the pair. Analysts forecasted 785 000. If the US data is better than expected, USD/CAD will rise. Otherwise – drop.
2. Elsewhere, Fed’s head Jerome Powell will hold a meeting at 19:30 MT time, where he would share economic forecast. This event should grab greater attention than it does usually as there has been some considerable talk from the Fedaround cutting the current pace of bond purchases. Analysts consider that the most probable outcome of this is an increase of the US Treasury yield which should drive the USD further up in the near term.
Overall, technical indicators in combination with fundamentals point to the further falling of USD/CAD.
China has issued new oil product export quotas to allow oil companies to send surplus barrels overseas, particularly Sinopec, which has the highest volume among quota holders. While the exact quota volume remains undisclosed, oil companies are forecasted to export approximately 3.5 million metric tons of clean oil products in September, a 10% increase from August.
Thanks to the incredible advancements in horizontal drilling and fracking technology, the United States has experienced a mind-blowing shale revolution. They've become the heavyweight champion of crude oil production, leaving Saudi Arabia and Russia in the dust. They even turned the tables and became net exporters of refined petroleum products in 2011.
Oil prices rebounded slightly on Friday but are still expected to show losses for the week due to concerns about slowing growth in the US and China. US crude futures rose 2.7% to $70.41 per barrel, while the Brent contract increased by 2.5% to $74.33 per barrel.
Welcome to October, the tenth month of 2023. For this installment of What to Trade, I have handpicked a few of my favorite trade ideas for the month. Let’s go over a few of them.
The past several weeks have been a real triumph for the bulls in the oil market. The Brent spot price grew by 8.5% during the last month.
Gold prices are rising for three consecutive days ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged due to declining inflation and a positive economic outlook. Investors are keen on the Fed's interest rate guidance, fearing a hawkish stance that could trigger market risk aversion.
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Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
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