The upcoming August inflation data may send mixed signals. The 12-month headline inflation rate is expected to rise to 3.6%, causing concerns for the Biden administration. However, core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, is projected to decrease to 4.3%, aligning with the Federal Reserve's goals. Past price trends influence both figures, so looking at recent data for a more accurate picture is crucial.
USD/CAD: bears are trying to win
2019-11-11 • Updated
SELL 1.3180; TP1 1.3150; TP2 1.3125; SL 1.3200
USD/CAD is actively testing levels below the July-September support line. In addition, it has slipped below all the key daily MAs (200, 100, and 50). The price action that has been unfolding since the start of September so far corresponds to the bullish harmonic “Shark” pattern, which implies that the price should decline to the 1.3125/20 area (50-month MA, 200-week MA) first to complete the pattern before turning higher.
The disappointing data from the United States which increases the odds of the Fed’s rate cut in October and the better-than-expected figures from Canada may be the drivers of the short-term movement to the downside. Watch for the break below the support at 1.3180 to trigger the move to the mentioned downside targets.
If USD/CAD returns above 1.3230 (100-day MA), bulls will regain power and we’ll have to rethink the situation.
The odds of a final interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year have dropped after US job openings hit their lowest levels since early 2021. This has led to a correction in the US Dollar as traders reduced their bets on further rate hikes.
Here we go again, my friends. It’s time to look critically into the future of what trading opportunities September might have in store for us. As always, it is essential to note that the views expressed here are mine and should not be considered financial advice without proper examination.
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