USD/CAD keeps falling down

The pair fell down on the weak US dollar and the positive Canadian data. What is the forecast?

What happened?

Yesterday the consumer price index came out better than expected. It rose by 0.8%, while the forecast was only 0.4%. USD/CAD slumped after the report to the 5-week low at 1.3400. At the same time, the weak US dollar added to the pair falling. In fact, the US dollar was waning on the risk-on sentiment, and it got an extra headwind from fears that democrats and republicans wouldn’t be able to agree on the fiscal stimulus package in a short time. In addition, the US existing home sales turned out worse than analysts expected. They rose by 4.72 million the last month, while the forecast was 4.77 million. Also, today the USA published jobless claims. Analysts expected that the numbers will stay at the same level as the previous time – 1.3 million. However, unemployment claims rose by 1.4 million and weighed on the US dollar.

Technical tips

The pair had been trading in a horizontal range between 1.3685 and 1.3500 during almost two weeks already. And, finally, USD/CAD escaped it, breaking down the 200-day moving average. As a rule, the price should fall by the same height as the range itself. The pair has already crossed the 1.3425 level and continues moving down. If the pair crosses the low of June 8 at 1.3380, it will plummet to the next support at 1.3320.

Kseniya Medik