2019-11-11 • Updated
The commodity-sensitive Loonie has appreciated to its strongest level since September (1.2910) due to surging oil prices and upbeat labor market data released on Friday.
Next week, traders will be focused on the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy meeting on June 12. Expectations for tightening have surged to 85% from just 4% a month ago as a number of hawkish comment from the BOC’s senior officials has increased in the past weeks. Some analysts believe that traders are overestimating the central bank’s willingness to raise rates. So, staying long in the loonie is not as clear cut as everybody thinks. Following the BOC’s monetary meeting the traders’ focus will shift towards Janet Yellen’s testimony scheduled for Wednesday-Thursday and the US inflation and retail sales data coming on Friday at 3:30 pm MT time. A positive oil market dynamics triggered by a possible decline in the US oil production or drops in inventory data will help commodity-linked Loonie to rise higher.
USD/CAD is trading around 1.2909 at the time of writing. There is a scope for extension towards 1.2820 (last September low). The odds for breaking lower levels is not high at this stage but the Bank of Canada’s rate hike could significantly improve them. On the upside, there are some resistances at 1.3015 and 1.3140.
China has issued new oil product export quotas to allow oil companies to send surplus barrels overseas, particularly Sinopec, which has the highest volume among quota holders. While the exact quota volume remains undisclosed, oil companies are forecasted to export approximately 3.5 million metric tons of clean oil products in September, a 10% increase from August.
Thanks to the incredible advancements in horizontal drilling and fracking technology, the United States has experienced a mind-blowing shale revolution. They've become the heavyweight champion of crude oil production, leaving Saudi Arabia and Russia in the dust. They even turned the tables and became net exporters of refined petroleum products in 2011.
Oil prices rebounded slightly on Friday but are still expected to show losses for the week due to concerns about slowing growth in the US and China. US crude futures rose 2.7% to $70.41 per barrel, while the Brent contract increased by 2.5% to $74.33 per barrel.
Bitcoin's price remains stagnant despite the Fed's slightly less hawkish tone. In contrast, Bitcoin has outperformed other assets, doubling in price from $16K to nearly $38K this year. Improved fundamentals, including the resolution of Binance concerns...
Hey folks, it’s a wrap to yet another month in the 2023 calendar, and I’m guessing you know what that means - time for another episode in the “What To Trade” series. For December, I will be mapping out trade more cautiously as the market volatility often drops
Gold prices, reaching the highest since May 5, are consolidating as traders await the US PCE Price Index, a key inflation indicator. The upcoming data could impact the Fed's policy, influencing the demand for the US Dollar and providing direction for gold. The Greenback sees some repositioning, recovering modestly ahead of the data risk.
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Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
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