2019-11-11 • Updated
USD/CAD slumped to 1.3545 in the past week due to rising oil prices and weaker USD. WTI and Brent oil futures rose after the Saudi Arabia and Russia have committed to extend production cut agreement. The political turmoil in Washington that could potentially end with Trump’s impeachment weighted in the USD depreciation against its major peers.
Next week the main focus will be on the Bank of Canada’s rate statement which is due on Wednesday. The central bank is widely expected to remain its rate on hold despite the soaring prices at Canadian house market. Household debt is poised to reach record levels as continuously low rate whet appetite for credit and inflated a bubble in real estate market. Canadian CPI figures picked up in April, but not enough for the central bank to raise its interest rate. An extremely dovish tone of the BoC’s policymakers will definitely hurt the CAD. The loonie might recoup its losses on May 25 following the OPEC meeting where more details on the extension of production cut agreement will be announced. On the USD front, pay special attention to what FOMC members’ chorus will tell you. A number of Fed’s policymakers will be speaking in the first half of the week. On Friday, traders will be waiting for the preliminary release of GDP figures and a monthly update of core durable goods orders. If headlines beat market expectation, USD might gain a strong momentum.
Technically, USD/CAD may slide further towards the solid support at 1.3480, or lower towards 1.2242 (100-day MA intersecting lower border of the rising trading channel). On the upside, there is a strong resistance at 1.3795 that might prevent USD from rising higher.
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Bearish Scenario: Sales below 78.99 with TP1: 77.93, TP2: 77.45, and upon its breakout TP3: 76.56 and TP4: 75.70 Bullish Scenario: Purchases above 78.00 (wait for a pullback to this area) with TP1: 1679.00 (uncovered POC*), TP2: 79.33, and TP3: 79.66 intraday
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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