2019-11-11 • Updated
Canadian dollar keeps making impressive gains versus its US counterpart. USD/CAD made an attempt to recover, but was severely rejected down from 1.2660 and fell to the lowest levels in more than 2 years.
The pair was hit both by the US problems and Canada’s bright economic figures. The CAD strengthened even as oil prices slipped in the wake of Hurricane Harvey, which has paralyzed a quarter of the US refining industry. A report released on Thursday showed that Canadian GDP grew at 4.5% annual pace in the second quarter, at the fastest pace since 2011. In addition, Mexican Economy Minister said on Thursday that Mexico and Canada would remain in the North American Free Trade Agreement even if the US administration abandoned the accord.
Traders are now almost sure that the Bank of Canada will raise its benchmark interest rate this year. Some players are even expecting a rate hike as soon as at the upcoming meeting on Wednesday, September 6. Such possibility is estimated at 30%. The likelihood of a rate hike in 2017, in general, is estimated at 85%.
Canadians will celebrate the Labor Day on Monday, and banks both in Canada and the US will be closed. Other days of the week will be packed with important events for CAD. Economic data releases include trade balance, building permits, Ivey PMI and employment figures.
USD/CAD remains in a downtrend. This trend will likely continue. A weekly close below 200-week MA at 1.2430 will be a bearish sign. Next support levels are at 1.2300 and 1.2200. MACD divergence on the daily chart may allow some correction to the upside. Resistance is at 1.2430 and 1.2550.
Oil prices rebounded slightly on Friday but are still expected to show losses for the week due to concerns about slowing growth in the US and China. US crude futures rose 2.7% to $70.41 per barrel, while the Brent contract increased by 2.5% to $74.33 per barrel.
Last Friday’s NFP was disappointing. The reaction of the markets was astonishing. Will it last longer? Let's find out the main trade opportunities for the upcoming week.
USD/CAD continues dipping. Follow US jobless claims and the speech of Fed’s Powell!
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
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