The upcoming August inflation data may send mixed signals. The 12-month headline inflation rate is expected to rise to 3.6%, causing concerns for the Biden administration. However, core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, is projected to decrease to 4.3%, aligning with the Federal Reserve's goals. Past price trends influence both figures, so looking at recent data for a more accurate picture is crucial.
USD/CHF awaits the news
2019-11-27 • Updated
SELL 0.9965; TP1 0.9947; TP2 0.9930; SL 0.9975
BUY 1.0005; TP 1.0030; SL 0.9990
The USD is awaiting American economic figures that are due later today (preliminary GDP growth, durable goods orders, core PCE price index, personal spending, and Chicago PMI). The figures may bring some volatility to USD/CHF.
For the past couple of days, USD/CHF has been consolidating below the resistance line that connects the highs of October and November in the 0.9990 area. Notice that this is just below the 1.0000 mark - the parity level that naturally represents a considerable obstacle for buyers. In addition, the price has reached the upper Bollinger Band on the D1 and the Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought area. This too should make the advance more difficult. On the downside, support has been around 0.9965. The decline below this level will open the way down to 0.9947 (200-day MA). Earlier this line didn't manage to hold the price action. The next levels to watch on the downside are at 0.9927 and 0.9885 (the 50- and the 100-day MAs respectively). Such a scenario will come into play if the market risk sentiment worsens.
If the United States and China keep moving towards a phase 1 trade deal and America releases decent economic data, USD/CHF may try for a break of resistance. If the pair settles above 1.0000, the new bullish targets will be at 1.0030 (October high) and 1.0050.
The odds of a final interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year have dropped after US job openings hit their lowest levels since early 2021. This has led to a correction in the US Dollar as traders reduced their bets on further rate hikes.
Here we go again, my friends. It’s time to look critically into the future of what trading opportunities September might have in store for us. As always, it is essential to note that the views expressed here are mine and should not be considered financial advice without proper examination.
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