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2020-07-24 • Updated
The pair sharply dropped to the one-month low. Will it keep falling further?
The US dollar is trading at its lowest levels since March 9. It seems that all the fundamentals are against the greenback these days. The risk-on sentiment pushed it deep down for three days. Moreover, investors have fears that republicans and democrats won’t be able to agree on the US fiscal stimulus package in a short time. At the same time, US unemployment claims, the CB leading index and existing home sales came worse than analysts expected and weighed more on the US dollar.
Today the market sentiment switched to risk-off. Investors picked up the Japanese yen choosing between two safe-have currencies. Concerns over rising Covid-19 cases in the USA pushed the USD down. While US-China tensions are escalating, Japan remains resilient to the external economic shocks. As long as the USD is weak, the JPY will keep rallying.
USD/JPY has been trading in a range between 107.40 and 106.75 for more than two weeks. Finally, it escaped it. As a rule, it should fall by the same height as the range itself. Thus, we may assume it would soon reach the support at the key psychological mark at 106.00. The move below this level will open doors towards the next support at the low of March 6 at 105.25. On the flip side, if the pair breaks through the resistance at the high of June 24 at 106.57, it may surge higher to the bottom of the horizontal range at 106.75 and then to the intersection of 100- and 200-day moving averages at 107.20.
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