USD/JPY came close to key resistance

If the pair crosses this level, it will surge further, otherwise – reverse. Check it out.

Fundamental factors

The Japanese data came worse than analysts expected. Unemployment rate turned out 2.9%, while the forecast was 2.8%. Also, the industrial production contracted by 8.4%, while only the 5.6% slump was anticipated. Negative data weighed on the JPY.
The US home sales bet all estimates. They rose by 44.3% against the forecasted 18.9% increase. That marked the largest surge in the history of home sales since the record began in 2001. The encouraging data pushed USD/JPY upward.

Upcoming event

The Fed’s chairman Jerome Powell will testify this evening at 19:30 MT time. His statement will add the fresh market volatility. If Powell gives optimistic prospects for the US economy and increases asset purchases, USD/JPY may rise, otherwise – fall.

Technical factors

USD/JPY is moving up for the fifth day. It will meet soon the strong resistance at 107.850, which it has touched several times already. There are two scenarios. The first and the most possible one is that the pair will break through the resistance at 107.850 and surge further to 108.400, where is the 200-day moving average lies. According to the second scenario, USD/JPY will reverse from the resistance at 107.850 and fall firstly to the support at 107.400 and then to the 50% Fibonacci level at 106.80. Follow the next movement of the pair, define the break out or the pullback and trade accordingly.

Kseniya Medik