USD/JPY: is the USD rally so strong?

USD/JPY: is the USD rally so strong?

2019-11-11 • Updated

Eased geopolitical and trade tensions led to the rise of the US dollar and the decline of the Japanese yen. On April 18 the US dollar managed to recover versus the Japanese yen and USD/JPY started its upward movement. The pair had already reached highs of the middle of February. Will the greenback continue to appreciate against the yen or the positive period for the USD will come to the end soon? Let’s look at the forecasts of the well-known financial institutions.

Short-term trade

UOB (a Singaporean United Overseas Bank).

The UOB predicts a further short-term rise to 109.30. If USD/JPY hits 109.30, it will signal a continuation of an upward movement to 110. Although the bank stays to its positive forecast, it does not exclude a possibility of a pullback to 107.80 that will indicate a downward movement.

Barclays (a British multinational investment bank and financial services company)

Analysts of Barclays see geopolitical and trade tensions as a key factor of the pair’s movement. According to the forecast, in the short-term USD/JPY will be boosted by a risk recovery. But they do not expect a bullish trend to continue for a long time. The North-South Korea summit (April 27) will influence the situation in the market.

Middle-term trade

J.P. Morgan (a global financial services firm and one of the largest banking institutions in the US) 

According to J.P. Morgan, the US dollar remains under pressure because of political and trade uncertainties. Any escalation of conflicts will lead to the greenback’s decline. Another important factor for USD is a monetary policy. While the US dollar is late in its tightening cycle and the Japanese yen is very early in it, so in the middle-term JPY has a higher potential for the upside than the greenback.

Danske Bank (the biggest commercial Danish bank)

The bank predicts 110-115 levels in 6-12 months that will be supported by continued solid global growth outlook and Fed-BOJ divergence.

Based on the above, we can say that in the short-term, traders can rely on the upward movement of the USD/JPY pair. However, the middle-term trade may differ. If geopolitical and trade-related issues get worse, the dollar will weaken. At the same time, solid economic growth may support the greenback.



How Will China’s Regulation Affect Oil?
How Will China’s Regulation Affect Oil?

China has issued new oil product export quotas to allow oil companies to send surplus barrels overseas, particularly Sinopec, which has the highest volume among quota holders. While the exact quota volume remains undisclosed, oil companies are forecasted to export approximately 3.5 million metric tons of clean oil products in September, a 10% increase from August.

The Oil Market in the Month of June
The Oil Market in the Month of June

Thanks to the incredible advancements in horizontal drilling and fracking technology, the United States has experienced a mind-blowing shale revolution. They've become the heavyweight champion of crude oil production, leaving Saudi Arabia and Russia in the dust. They even turned the tables and became net exporters of refined petroleum products in 2011.

Oil Market Outlook
Oil Market Outlook

Oil prices rebounded slightly on Friday but are still expected to show losses for the week due to concerns about slowing growth in the US and China. US crude futures rose 2.7% to $70.41 per barrel, while the Brent contract increased by 2.5% to $74.33 per barrel.

Latest news

Gold is Rising Despite Inflation Returns
Gold is Rising Despite Inflation Returns

Gold prices are rising for three consecutive days ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged due to declining inflation and a positive economic outlook. Investors are keen on the Fed's interest rate guidance, fearing a hawkish stance that could trigger market risk aversion.

Can the Chinese Economy Recover?
Can the Chinese Economy Recover?

Amid concerns of a Chinese economic slowdown, reports of declining investment often overlook China's efficient investment strategy in emerging sectors for long-term growth. China has taken measures to stabilize foreign and private sector investments, like reducing the reserve requirement ratio to boost investor confidence.

Deposit with your local payment systems

Data collection notice

FBS maintains a record of your data to run this website. By pressing the “Accept” button, you agree to our Privacy policy.


A manager will call you shortly.

Change number

Your request is accepted.

A manager will call you shortly.

Next callback request for this phone number
will be available in

If you have an urgent issue please contact us via
Live chat

Internal error. Please try again later

Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!

You are using an older version of your browser.

Update it to the latest version or try another one for a safer, more comfortable and productive trading experience.

Safari Chrome Firefox Opera