USD/JPY is rising

The US dollar became stronger last week amid the risk-off sentiment, but this week the demand for the greenback waned. It was caused by optimism over the US fiscal stimulus package and also some progress in the Brexit agreement. The impasse between Democrats and Republicans has been too long, therefore the recent announcement to unveil 2.2 trillion dollars improved the market sentiment and weighed more on the safe-haven yen. On the flip side, uncertainty over November’s US elections may underpin the JPY against the USD.

Technical tips

USD/JPY has been rising for almost a week except for Monday, but the strong resistance of the 50-day moving average at 105.80 may stop it from moving higher. In fact, it has already failed several times to cross it. However, if it manages to break it through, the doors towards 106.20 and then to 106.50 will be open. The RSI indicator has approached the 50.00 level. As you may know, if the RSI is above this point, momentum is considered up and there’s more sense to look for opportunities to buy. That’s why, the breakout may confirm further bullishness.

In the opposite scenario, if it falls below the key psychological mark of 105.00, the way to the low of September 17 at 104.50 will be open. Indeed, this scenario is quite possible as the long-term trend is bearish, and there is no sign of reverse yet. Wait what will happen next: breakout or pullback and join the flow!

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Kseniya Medik