As you must already know, the direction of Gold is mainly dependent on the Price action of DXY (US Dollar index). So first, we take a look at the US Dollar index.
USD/JPY: levels to trade on the Fed’s meeting
2019-11-11 • Updated
SELL 108.30; TP 107.85; SL 108.45
BUY 109.10; TP 109.60; SL 108.90
USD/JPY consolidated between 108.40 and 108.95 ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting later today. The market has been waiting for this event for a long time and it should pave the future of the currency pair. The short-term dynamics will surely be volatile.
Technically, resistance looks harder to break than support. However, if USD/JPY manages to get beyond 109.00, it will be able to target 109.60 (50% Fibo of the April-June decline). On the downside, we focus on the 108.35 level (50-day MA). A decline below this point will open the way down to 107.85 (early June lows). The next support will be at 107.50.
On January 12, the Bureau of Statistics will publish the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, a key index for determining interest rates. While we await the release, experts forecast a decline in the CPI data, a hint at weaker Dollar values in the global markets.
The trend in the scenario above is clearly bearish. We have also had a recent break of structure at the marked horizontal arrows, which means we can expect price to react from the supply zone that broke the structure.
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates?
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.