USD/JPY: outlook for April 24-28

USD/JPY has managed to stay above the 55-week MA at 108.30 as geopolitical risks have declined. In addition, the Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda said that the regulator would continue with its accommodative monetary policy and maintain the current pace of asset purchases for some time. So, during the past week demand for the yen has subsided.

Next week the dynamics of Japan’s currency will once again largely depend on external risk sentiment. The first risk is created by French election on Sunday, April, 23. If the pro-euro candidate Emmanuel Marcon fails to pass to the second round of the elections, the yen will strengthen again. If Marcon succeeds, USD/JPY will gain. The second risk is connected with North Korea’s potential nuclear test on April 25. Towards the end of the week, traders will be focused on the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting and press conference which will be held on Thursday. An overwhelming majority of market analysts expect that the central bank will maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy. This will certainly weaken the yen against the USD. In terms of the economic data, we will be waiting for Japan’s CPI figures, household spending and unemployment rate all coming on Friday.

The risk events in coming days might send USD/JPY to test 108.10 (April 17th low), 107.50 and 106.45 (61.8% Fibo level traced from 2016 low). A rebound towards the immediate resistances at 109.45 and 110.00 (psychological level) might occur towards the end of the week. Next resistance lies around 111.10 (38.2% Fibo retracement level).

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