2019-11-11 • Updated
USD/JPY fell to 110.20 in the course of the past week. The pair was hit by continuing troubles of Trump administration. Nervous investors switched to the safe-haven yen after media reported that Trump obstructed justice by pressuring former FBI director James Comey to end investigation into ties between Russia and the former US security advisor Michael Flynn. Lawyers regarded Trump’s actions as an impeachable offense. On the economic data front, Japanese Preliminary GDP improved to 0.5% vs forecasted 0.4%. US jobless claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing index surpassed market expectations and helped USD recover its losses, but only partially. It’s clear that political factor will keep affecting the pair.
Let’s have a look at the upcoming events. We will receive Japan’s trade balance data on Monday. Flash Manufacturing PMI and CPI figures will be released on Wednesday and Friday respectively. US statistical entities will release housing market data, manufacturing figures, core durable goods orders and, most importantly, preliminary GDP. If Trump’s aides fail to improve the situation, the US dollar will remain under pressure next week and lose even more ground.
USD/JPY reversed to the downside from 100-week MA just above 113.00. This line will now act as resistance together with 100-day MA at 112.75. Support lies at the psychologically important level of 110 ahead of 108.60 (50-week MA). The pair may consolidate between 112.50 and 108.50 in the coming weeks. Increase in the market’s risk aversion can make the greenback test lower border of this range.
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Bearish Scenario: Sales below 78.99 with TP1: 77.93, TP2: 77.45, and upon its breakout TP3: 76.56 and TP4: 75.70 Bullish Scenario: Purchases above 78.00 (wait for a pullback to this area) with TP1: 1679.00 (uncovered POC*), TP2: 79.33, and TP3: 79.66 intraday
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
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