The upcoming August inflation data may send mixed signals. The 12-month headline inflation rate is expected to rise to 3.6%, causing concerns for the Biden administration. However, core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, is projected to decrease to 4.3%, aligning with the Federal Reserve's goals. Past price trends influence both figures, so looking at recent data for a more accurate picture is crucial.
USD/JPY: potential harmonic pattern
2022-05-17 • Updated
SELL 107.40; TP 107.05; SL 107.55
USD/JPY is forming on the H1 what looks like a bearish “Butterfly” pattern. The pattern will allow the pair to rise to the 107.50/60 area (limited by the 100-day MA and 100-period MA on the H4). There’s also an obstacle in the form of the 200-period MA on the H4 at 107.40. After the advance to the mentioned levels, the pattern should trigger a decline to the 107.05/00 zone. Trading the pattern should involve some on-the-spot decision making: if you see the signs of reversal near 107.60, you can sell there. If the pair gets above 107.40 and then returns below it, it will mean that the upside is over and a short-term decline has started, so once again you will be able to open a short position. The rise above 107.70 is needed to open the way up to 108.00/50.
The odds of a final interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year have dropped after US job openings hit their lowest levels since early 2021. This has led to a correction in the US Dollar as traders reduced their bets on further rate hikes.
Here we go again, my friends. It’s time to look critically into the future of what trading opportunities September might have in store for us. As always, it is essential to note that the views expressed here are mine and should not be considered financial advice without proper examination.
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