USD/ZAR Broke Above 15.00. Will It Rally Further?

What is happening?

The fresh resurgence of Covid-19 cases and Fed’s Meeting Minutes drove USD/ZAR above the psychological mark of 15.00. It has failed to break above the 15.25 resistance level so far. However, if it manages to do so, the pair may rocket to the next round number of 15.50, which is near the high of March 8.

What drives USD/ZAR?

Rand bulls were encouraged by the retail sales data for June as actual numbers (10.4%) exceeded market expectations of 9.6%. However, it is not so significant factor for the USD/ZAR currency pair. The main driver is the upcoming Fed meeting. Even market expectations of this event are affecting the US dollar and thus USD/ZAR.

On August 18, the Fed has revealed Meeting Minutes – a detailed record of its latest event. After watching it, investors have become more confident that the Fed may start slowing down its financial support (tightening the policy) already this year! It is expected that tapering will likely take place between September 2021 – December 2021. It is positive news for the US dollar.

Forecast

USD/ZAR may move sideways between 15.00 and 15.25 for a while as the RSI indicator is close to 70.00, signaling the asset is overbought. Thus, we might expect a pullback to 15.00 and then reverse up again. However, the current strength of the US dollar makes the breakout above 15.25 very likely!

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Author: FBS Analyst Team

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