2019-11-11 • Updated
USD/CAD fell below 1.2680 in the past week after the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%. While markets had priced in a rate hike, the central bank’s a much more hawkish rhetoric was a real surprise for them and busted the CAD further. The neutral tone delivered by Fed Chair Janet Yellen during her testimony to the US Congress has also resulted in a rapid depreciation of the USD. A relative surge in oil prices has also contributed to the Loonie’s appreciation.
At their recent meeting, the BOC’s officials dismissed the lack of inflation as temporary. But following the rate increase they will likely become more data dependent trying to assess the impact of policy tightening in the context of heightened household indebtedness. This makes the next week’s inflation data very important. A print below market expectation might result in Loonie’s depreciation. Another focus will be on the Canadian foreign security purchases and manufacturing sales coming on Monday and Wednesday respectively. From the US we will get the US empire state manufacturing index on Monday, some housing data on Wednesday and Philly Fed Manufacturing index on Thursday.
USD/CAD is trading near 1.2725 now. As Stochastic is still in the oversold area there might be an extension of the recent rebound towards the resistances at 1.2820, 1.3015. A return of quotes below the Wednesday’s low of 1.2678 and subsequent breach of this level would allow us to target lower levels. But in the short-term, the following scenario will unlike realize.
Oil prices rebounded slightly on Friday but are still expected to show losses for the week due to concerns about slowing growth in the US and China. US crude futures rose 2.7% to $70.41 per barrel, while the Brent contract increased by 2.5% to $74.33 per barrel.
Last Friday’s NFP was disappointing. The reaction of the markets was astonishing. Will it last longer? Let's find out the main trade opportunities for the upcoming week.
USD/CAD continues dipping. Follow US jobless claims and the speech of Fed’s Powell!
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
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