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2020-12-17 • Updated
You’ve probably been thinking “What’s happening to USD/CHF”, right? Well, trading at 0.88, this pair is at the six-year lows. The interesting thing is that during 2020, USD/CHF dropped from above 1.00 to this level – that’s the amplitude of this currency’s trade during all these years, and it went from the multiyear resistance to the multiyear support just in 12 months. Now, if it drops the same distance downwards in the next year, that will bring it to 0.78 – as low as ever in the last 20 years, with only 2011 being the only time when it plunged that deep.
How to trade that? Technically, there is little evidence to suggest that the trend will stop any soon. The only thing to note is that the last ten days present a nice equilateral downward channel – that may be useful if you want to do scalping and see the currency pair bounce from one side to another. Fundamentally, watch precisely 0.8800 – that’s a psychological level, a key threshold. If there is a spot where the downtrend may stop – or reverse – it probably will be there around 0.8800. Once and if you see the currency pair approach that level, look for reversal signs – bulls may take over. Otherwise, generally, a continuation of this downward trajectory is to be taken as a primary scenario.
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