The Crypto market usually also has a rough time in September. Bitcoin lost 12.7% in September 2021, 17.4% in 2020, 17.5% in 2018, 21.4% in 2017 and 45.4% in 2015. The main cryptocurrency increased by 13.3% and 3.95% in 2016 and 2019, respectively.
USD/JPY: changing platforms
2020-06-23 • Updated
After devastating March and humiliating April, May’s recovery brought hopes, positivism, and optimism to the markets. We can see that the USD has been gaining value against the safe-haven JPY almost the entire month. There was a pause at stage 2 after a shaky upswing at stage 1, then stage 3 followed with a spectacular peak. That was observed in the stock market as well. But that, altogether, was just the first awakening after a lethargic March and April. Just like spring after winter. However, unlike natural seasons, the market mood is now in a retrace after the recovery hopes brought it up from the ruining silence. Stage 4 was an introduction to that retrace, which undid almost all gains of May. The good news is, it landed higher than May lows – that gives a hint that the recovery is indeed underway, but it will not be a straight line upwards. Currently, we are in stage 5 – a sideways movement that changes baseline levels from time to time. Let’s see it closer.
From June 11 till June 18, the USD has been trading within channel 1 between 107.20 and 107.50 against the JPY. Then, it moved downwards to go sideways within channel 2 between 106.75 and 107.00 until this Tuesday. Currently, it is in the middle zone between those two channels suggesting a potential for a new sideways channel 3. Although it doesn’t look like a single shot out of channel 2, we still need to time-confirm this shift. In any case, it is a good sign: it means there are lighter moods among investors who look to trade more risk-on compared to the previous week. If the fundamental balance stays neutral as it is now, we are likely to see USD/JPY move within this channel. If the information background – which is more unlikely – becomes more positive, we will see USD/JPY move into the zone of channel 1. Set your trades accordingly and watch the news.
US100 broke through the strong resistance trendline, following July's inflation numbers on Wednesday, which were less than analysts expected…
Powell wants a soft landing for inflation, as Greenspan did in 1994. But it looks like he will get a hard landing.
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are virtual national money. The idea of creating such currencies came to the authorities after the success of cryptocurrencies, which also exist only in digital form.
The views here are solely based on Technical Analysis techniques using my personal Smart Money approach. Hence, it is important to understand that the trading of CFDs comes at a risk; if not properly managed, you may lose all of your trading capital. To avoid costly mistakes while you look to trade these opportunities, be sure to do your own due diligence and manage your risk appropriately.
Even though we've only witnessed sluggish movements from the Dollar over the past few weeks, the general idea and bias still seem intact and untampered. The bullish impulse however can be seen as "searching for support".