2023-03-08 • Updated
If you open the weekly chart of USD/JPY, you’ll see that most of the performance since 2015 has been following the marked trend. So far, there is little evidence – neither fundamental nor technical – to assume that this downtrend is going to change. Especially that many observers comment that the USD may grow stronger that it used to be until recently. Therefore, let’s presume that the currency pair just has touched the bottom of the downtrend at 102.60 and will now bounce upwards to form an upswing. How would this scenario look like?
On the daily chart, you’ll notice that the upward movement of USD/JPY roughly repeats the steps it did on the way down. For example, 104.30 used to be the resistance zone in November – and so it was in January until the pair finally broke it. After that, USD/JPY stopped at 105.65 – exactly the high of November 12. Finally, the current resistance of 106.00 corresponds to the October highs. That’s why it seems logical to assume the USD/JPY may be making similar swings around the resistance levels it left before. Therefore, the next one we’d have to look for is 107.00, with the possible intermediary targets at 106.20 and 106.60. 107.00 is the August resistance, and 108.00 was the June-July high. Therefore, when and if 107.00 gets broken, 108.00 will be the one to go. If our hypothesis of the repetition of the previous highs is correct, this cascade-like series of upswing will take around a month to climb to 108.00. That’s why, if you are to test this approach, it will be more fitting for mid-term position trading, with one single upswing taking several to complete. Let’s time-test it!
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