2022-08-30 • Updated
Financial giants such as JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs anticipate crude oil to skyrocket as high as $100 as the global economy rebounds. Oil prices haven’t been at such a high level since 2014. What are the reasons behind banks’ optimism? The banks believe that Biden’s fiscal stimulus of $1.9 trillion will boost consumption and thus increased demand in combination with massive output cuts would fuel the recent surge in oil prices. However, there is still much depends on OPEC+ decisions on oil supply.
All these banks’ forecasts are good, but won’t oil be replaced by alternative energy resources? The US President committed to fight climate change and support the development of electric vehicles. His goal is to make the US carbon-free by 2050. It seems that there is no place for crude oil in our future. Yes, but JPMorgan assured: “We’re going to be short of oil before we don’t need it in the years to come. We could see oil overshoot towards, or even above, $100 a barrel.” Besides, Goldman Sachs emphasized that Biden’s stimulus will be directed to middle and low-class people, who mostly drive petrol-drive cars, not Teslas.
Brent crude has gained more than two-thirds so far since October and reached $63 a barrel. The price has broken through all weekly moving averages, confirming an uptrend. Now the price is just under the key psychological level of $65.00. If it manages to break it, the way up to the high of January of the last year at $70.00 will be clear. Support levels are at the 200-week moving average of $59.00 and the low of late January at $55.00.
The current CFD for Brent oil is BRN-21J, which expires on February 26.
China has issued new oil product export quotas to allow oil companies to send surplus barrels overseas, particularly Sinopec, which has the highest volume among quota holders. While the exact quota volume remains undisclosed, oil companies are forecasted to export approximately 3.5 million metric tons of clean oil products in September, a 10% increase from August.
Thanks to the incredible advancements in horizontal drilling and fracking technology, the United States has experienced a mind-blowing shale revolution. They've become the heavyweight champion of crude oil production, leaving Saudi Arabia and Russia in the dust. They even turned the tables and became net exporters of refined petroleum products in 2011.
Oil prices rebounded slightly on Friday but are still expected to show losses for the week due to concerns about slowing growth in the US and China. US crude futures rose 2.7% to $70.41 per barrel, while the Brent contract increased by 2.5% to $74.33 per barrel.
The past several weeks have been a real triumph for the bulls in the oil market. The Brent spot price grew by 8.5% during the last month.
Gold prices are rising for three consecutive days ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged due to declining inflation and a positive economic outlook. Investors are keen on the Fed's interest rate guidance, fearing a hawkish stance that could trigger market risk aversion.
Amid concerns of a Chinese economic slowdown, reports of declining investment often overlook China's efficient investment strategy in emerging sectors for long-term growth. China has taken measures to stabilize foreign and private sector investments, like reducing the reserve requirement ratio to boost investor confidence.
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