What Does the CPI Have in Store?

What Does the CPI Have in Store?

2023-01-12 • Updated


On January 12, the Bureau of Statistics will publish the figures for the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key index for determining interest rates. While we await the release, experts forecast a decline in the CPI data, a hint at weaker Dollar values in the global markets. According to the analysts' expectations, the CPI m/m will decline from 0.1% to -0.1%, whereas the CPI y/y is expected to fall to 6.5% against the 7.1% in November. However, Core CPI is expected to rise by 0.1% from the 0.2% previous result.

With this in mind, it would be crucial to evaluate the current inclinations of the markets from a technical point of view ahead of these releases.



Based on the US Dollar index chart's current ranging behavior despite an overall bearish outlook. With a bullish correction, I expect the price to seize the opportunity to complete a much more robust retracement into my Fibonacci kill zone. Afterward, we could see the price decline further below the recent low.

The Fibonacci retracement levels, Moving Averages, and a rally-base-drop supply zone are added confirmations for this bias.



EURUSD is currently trading within a supply zone on the Daily timeframe. However, it is consolidating within a wedge. If the actual CPI release follows the expected figures, the USD will weaken. I plan to take buy entries off the 200-SMA on the hourly timeframe.

The 200-SMA, pivot zone, and rally-base-rally demand zone are my confluences.



GBPUSD may experience some initial decline as a correction of the recent bullish structure break. It would mean we likely see GBPUSD slide to the 76.4% bullish impulse, an added confirmation to the demand zone.



USDJPY has had an overall bearish outlook for over a week now. However, I am still waiting for the price to tap into the supply zone I marked at the top of the chart. For the price to get there, though, there should be an initial bullish correction to create a conducive retracement before the drop.

The rally-base-drop supply zone, equal-high liquidity grab, and Fibonacci kill zone are my major confluences for this trade.



It will likely be the primary focus of many traders during the fundamental release. My chips favor the price reaching down to the 200-SMA + trendline support, as shown on the chart. 

The bullish break of structure, rally-base-rally demand zone, and the Fibonacci 200-SMA are my confluences for this trade. 


The views above are solely based on technical Analysis techniques using my Smart Money approach. Hence, it is essential to understand that the trading of CFDs comes at a risk. If properly managed, you may retain all of your trading capital. To avoid costly mistakes while you look to trade these opportunities, be sure to do your due diligence and manage your risk appropriately. You can access more of such trade ideas and prompt market updates on the telegram channel.



PPI forecast and the State of the Dollar
PPI forecast and the State of the Dollar

Since the fateful events of March 10th, 2023, I mean the SVB and Signature Bank crash, there has been a lot of attention on the US economy and the Dollar from the international community.

US Banks Collapse: FBS Explains
US Banks Collapse: FBS Explains

On Friday, March 10, the 16th largest US bank suddenly burst. The bankruptcy became the second largest in history among American commercial banks. In this article, we look at what happened and how it could affect all of us.

How Can NFP Release Affect the USD?
How Can NFP Release Affect the USD?

In February, the NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) delivered a great shock, surpassing the forecast by over 400%. The forecast for this month's NFP is currently tied at half of the actual figure from last month's...

Latest news

Is JPY Ready to Reclaim All-Year High?
Is JPY Ready to Reclaim All-Year High?

Between October 2022, and January 2023, the Japanese Yen outperformed several other currency pairs, resulting in over a thousand pips move on pairs like EURJPY, GBPJPY, and 2000-plus...

How Will Euro Move After the ECB
How Will Euro Move After the ECB

The European Central Bank (ECB) raised its interest rates by 0.5% to 3%, as planned, to combat inflation, despite some investors'...

Key Moment for the Oil Market
Key Moment for the Oil Market

Oil prices fell to a three-month low following the release of US inflation data which was in line with expectations. The annual inflation rate of 6%...

Deposit with your local payment systems

Feel the Team Spirit

Data collection notice

FBS maintains a record of your data to run this website. By pressing the “Accept” button, you agree to our Privacy policy.


A manager will call you shortly.

Change number

Your request is accepted.

A manager will call you shortly.

Next callback request for this phone number
will be available in

If you have an urgent issue please contact us via
Live chat

Internal error. Please try again later

Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!

Beginner Forex book

Beginner Forex book will guide you through the world of trading.

Beginner Forex book

The most important things to start trading
Enter your e-mail, and we will send you a free Beginner Forex book

Thank you!

We've emailed a special link to your e-mail.
Click the link to confirm your address and get Beginner Forex book for free.

You are using an older version of your browser.

Update it to the latest version or try another one for a safer, more comfortable and productive trading experience.

Safari Chrome Firefox Opera