2023-01-12 • Updated
On January 12, the Bureau of Statistics will publish the figures for the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key index for determining interest rates. While we await the release, experts forecast a decline in the CPI data, a hint at weaker Dollar values in the global markets. According to the analysts' expectations, the CPI m/m will decline from 0.1% to -0.1%, whereas the CPI y/y is expected to fall to 6.5% against the 7.1% in November. However, Core CPI is expected to rise by 0.1% from the 0.2% previous result.
With this in mind, it would be crucial to evaluate the current inclinations of the markets from a technical point of view ahead of these releases.
Based on the US Dollar index chart's current ranging behavior despite an overall bearish outlook. With a bullish correction, I expect the price to seize the opportunity to complete a much more robust retracement into my Fibonacci kill zone. Afterward, we could see the price decline further below the recent low.
The Fibonacci retracement levels, Moving Averages, and a rally-base-drop supply zone are added confirmations for this bias.
EURUSD is currently trading within a supply zone on the Daily timeframe. However, it is consolidating within a wedge. If the actual CPI release follows the expected figures, the USD will weaken. I plan to take buy entries off the 200-SMA on the hourly timeframe.
The 200-SMA, pivot zone, and rally-base-rally demand zone are my confluences.
GBPUSD may experience some initial decline as a correction of the recent bullish structure break. It would mean we likely see GBPUSD slide to the 76.4% bullish impulse, an added confirmation to the demand zone.
USDJPY has had an overall bearish outlook for over a week now. However, I am still waiting for the price to tap into the supply zone I marked at the top of the chart. For the price to get there, though, there should be an initial bullish correction to create a conducive retracement before the drop.
The rally-base-drop supply zone, equal-high liquidity grab, and Fibonacci kill zone are my major confluences for this trade.
It will likely be the primary focus of many traders during the fundamental release. My chips favor the price reaching down to the 200-SMA + trendline support, as shown on the chart.
The bullish break of structure, rally-base-rally demand zone, and the Fibonacci 200-SMA are my confluences for this trade.
The views above are solely based on technical Analysis techniques using my Smart Money approach. Hence, it is essential to understand that the trading of CFDs comes at a risk. If properly managed, you may retain all of your trading capital. To avoid costly mistakes while you look to trade these opportunities, be sure to do your due diligence and manage your risk appropriately. You can access more of such trade ideas and prompt market updates on the telegram channel.
During the Asian session on Wednesday, the USD/CAD pair rebounded after two days of losses, reaching around 1.3590. This uptick is fueled by a stronger US dollar and lower crude oil prices, which put pressure on the Canadian dollar. The decline in Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices to approximately $80.70 is attributed to...
The Australian Dollar (AUD) rebounds on Monday, despite a slight dip in the US Dollar (USD) and higher US Treasury yields. Investors are eyeing Australian monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February and US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q4 2023. The AUD gains momentum as the ASX 200 Index rises, especially in mining and energy sectors. Additionally, the Aussie...
Gold prices rose on Monday as the US Dollar weakened amidst speculation about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts starting in June. This weakened Dollar was partly due to improved risk sentiment pushing US Treasury yields lower. Despite facing challenges from declining yields, gold prices recovered to nearly $2,170 per troy ounce, driven by the Dollar's weakness. Federal Reserve Chair...
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
FBS maintains a record of your data to run this website. By pressing the “Accept” button, you agree to our Privacy policy.
Your request is accepted.
A manager will call you shortly.
Next callback request for this phone number
will be available in
If you have an urgent issue please contact us via
Live chat
Internal error. Please try again later
Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
|
