The upcoming August inflation data may send mixed signals. The 12-month headline inflation rate is expected to rise to 3.6%, causing concerns for the Biden administration. However, core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, is projected to decrease to 4.3%, aligning with the Federal Reserve's goals. Past price trends influence both figures, so looking at recent data for a more accurate picture is crucial.
What to Trade on July 11-15?
2022-12-15 • Updated
Last week was shocking!
The US dollar gained more than 2.5% against other currencies ahead of the NFP statement on Friday. As a result, EURUSD plunged to the 20-year low at 1.0100. The US stock market keeps retesting the global ascending channel from below. As a result, US500 and US100 are still trading below the 50-day moving average. The oil market lost around 10%. XBRUSD dropped to $98.00 support and bounced back to $102.00 by the end of the week.
The head of the Bank of England, Bailey, will give his speech about the monetary policy on Tuesday, July 12. GBPUSD is trading around a historic low of 1.1920. If Mr. Bailey gives any hawkish hints regarding the monetary policy, the pair might return above 1.2200. However, we believe that the US dollar strengthening will press the pair to 1.1680 first.
On Wednesday, July 13, investors and traders will be looking at the US CPI data, the main driver of the markets in 2022. The inflation in the United States positively correlates with the oil market, which has been cooling down since June. However, if the inflation is higher than expected, EURUSD will go to 0.9600.
Also, on Wednesday, the Bank of Canada will make its monetary policy report. The markets expect to see a 50-basis-points rate hike. That might pressure the USDCAD currency pair trading under the global resistance line. We expect the pair to head towards 1.2650 support after in the middle term.
The US stock market made a solid bounce. However, US500 is still trading under 4000, meaning the downtrend isn’t over yet. The traders should observe this level and open buy trades in case of the breakout. Otherwise, US500 might keep going down with the target at 3500. For US100, the critical resistance is 12 700, and the primary support remains at 11 000.
HK50 broke out of the ascending channel. When the price breaks below the 100-day moving average, it will head to the 20 000 support.
Oil, gas & metals
XBRUSD was trading at around 100.00 by the end of the last week. The price is heading to the 200-day moving average at 96.00. At the same time, XTIUSD is heading towards the support level at 92.50, which also matches the 200-day moving average. Traders might look for buy trades around these support levels.
XAUUSD dropped hard. The price is heading towards the 1690 global support, and it seems like buyers won’t enter the game until then.
Do you want to get updates Live? Subscribe to the @FBSAnalytics Telegram Channel where I post more daily trade ideas!
The odds of a final interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year have dropped after US job openings hit their lowest levels since early 2021. This has led to a correction in the US Dollar as traders reduced their bets on further rate hikes.
Here we go again, my friends. It’s time to look critically into the future of what trading opportunities September might have in store for us. As always, it is essential to note that the views expressed here are mine and should not be considered financial advice without proper examination.
The past several weeks have been a real triumph for the bulls in the oil market. The Brent spot price grew by 8.5% during the last month.
Gold prices are rising for three consecutive days ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged due to declining inflation and a positive economic outlook. Investors are keen on the Fed's interest rate guidance, fearing a hawkish stance that could trigger market risk aversion.
Amid concerns of a Chinese economic slowdown, reports of declining investment often overlook China's efficient investment strategy in emerging sectors for long-term growth. China has taken measures to stabilize foreign and private sector investments, like reducing the reserve requirement ratio to boost investor confidence.