2022-12-15 • Updated
Last week was shocking!
The US dollar gained more than 2% against other currencies ahead of the 75-basis points rate hike by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday but dropped after the announcement. As a result, EURUSD bounced off the 1.0350 support and reached 1.0550 by Friday. The US stock market lost its global support. US500 plunged below 3800, while US100 broke through the 11 700 support level. The oil market has cooled down. XBRUSD plunged to 110.70 support, the 50-day moving average.
Trade ideas
Forex
The Canada Statistics will publish the Core Retail Sales m/m numbers on Tuesday. Moreover, on Wednesday, investors will get the data about the inflation rate in Canada. USDCAD is trading right under the strongest resistance level of 1.3000. Higher than expected results might strengthen the Canadian dollar versus the USD and send the pair down to 1.2730 support.
Also, on Wednesday, the Office of National Statistics will publish the Great Britain inflation rate. GBPUSD bounced from the historic support of 1.2000. A higher-than-expected inflation rate might push the pair towards 1.3000 resistance.
On Thursday, investors will get the German Flash Manufacturing PMI data. EURUSD has also found a support level of 1.0350. The pair is heading towards the 1.0770 resistance level, and higher-than-expected results might help the price to reach it.
Stocks
The US stock indices had a rough close of the previous week due to the key rate increase in the United States. Both indices have lost their critical support. US100 and US500 might keep going down to the next support level of 3500 and 10 800, respectively.
Chinese Hang Seng has been trading in range during the past week. However, markets are concerned about the possible military conflict between China and Taiwan. If it happens, the HK50 might drop to 19 000.
Oil, gas & metals
XBRUSD has declined to $110.50 support by the end of the previous week. Traders might consider buying XBRUSD while the price is staying above this level. On the other hand, if the price declines below, it might plunge to $106.50 and $102.00.
XAUUSD plunged under the 200-day moving average last Friday. If buyers couldn’t return the price above this resistance, it will fall to $1800. Otherwise, we might see a pump above $1900.
The upcoming August inflation data may send mixed signals. The 12-month headline inflation rate is expected to rise to 3.6%, causing concerns for the Biden administration. However, core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, is projected to decrease to 4.3%, aligning with the Federal Reserve's goals. Past price trends influence both figures, so looking at recent data for a more accurate picture is crucial.
The odds of a final interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year have dropped after US job openings hit their lowest levels since early 2021. This has led to a correction in the US Dollar as traders reduced their bets on further rate hikes.
Here we go again, my friends. It’s time to look critically into the future of what trading opportunities September might have in store for us. As always, it is essential to note that the views expressed here are mine and should not be considered financial advice without proper examination.
The past several weeks have been a real triumph for the bulls in the oil market. The Brent spot price grew by 8.5% during the last month.
Gold prices are rising for three consecutive days ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged due to declining inflation and a positive economic outlook. Investors are keen on the Fed's interest rate guidance, fearing a hawkish stance that could trigger market risk aversion.
Amid concerns of a Chinese economic slowdown, reports of declining investment often overlook China's efficient investment strategy in emerging sectors for long-term growth. China has taken measures to stabilize foreign and private sector investments, like reducing the reserve requirement ratio to boost investor confidence.
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