As you must already know, the direction of Gold is mainly dependent on the Price action of DXY (US Dollar index). So first, we take a look at the US Dollar index.
What to Trade on May 30-June 3
2022-12-16 • Updated
The US dollar kept falling lower during the previous week, pushing the major currency pairs up. At the same time, the US stock market bounced up, oil prices jumped higher, and gold strengthened above 1850. Next week, we expect the BOC rate statement, the OPEC+ meeting, and the Nonfarm payrolls release. Let's look at the opportunities in detail!
On Friday, EURUSD tested the zone above the 50-day SMA at 1.0750. The pair has a high chance of breaking level this week and targeting the resistance at 1.0900. Several market events can trigger a further rise of the euro. First, there is a speech of the FOMC Member Waller on Monday. If he comments on the possible end of the tightening cycle, it will indicate weakness of the USD. Second, there are several essential releases on the US employment throughout the week. While the Nonfarm payrolls' release on Friday is the most important one, JOLTS Job Openings and ADP Nonfarm employment change may also bring volatility to the key pairs.
Do not underestimate the interest rate decision by the Bank of Canada. Traders expect the central bank to raise the interest rate by 50 basis points. If this is correct, USDCAD will cross the 1.2660 level and fall lower to 1.2500.
Oil & Gold
The main event for the oil market is the OPEC+ meeting, where the oil-producing countries will discuss possible modifications to the current output plan. The committee has restricted calls from major oil importers to do more to stabilize the rising oil market. According to the alliance, as the oil supply is relatively in the balance right now, we don't see any changes in OPEC+ policy. The first resistance for XTIUSD lies at $115; after that, the price of WTI may head to $126. The price of Brent is moving to the resistance at $120; the next key level lies at $130.
The gold took advantage of the weak USD last week and moved closer to the peak of May 24 at 1870. The next resistance for gold lies at 1890. On the downside, 1840 represents a strong support line.
A lot of news happened on the US stock market last week. First of all, the American indices showed a week of stable gains. If S&P500 (US500) keeps going up, proving the formation of the double bottom on the daily chart, the next target for buyers will be placed at 4300 (50-day SMA). On contrary, if the USD takes back its strength, S&P500 will fall below 3900 to the next point at 3700. As for NASDAQ, the index rose 5% from Wednesday to the resistance at 12 600. After the breakout of this level, expect a rise to 13 600.
Stock traders await the 1-20 stock split by Amazon on June 3 after the trading session close. Thus, the stock may be pumped ahead of the event. We expect it to move higher to 2430 (50-month MA) this week.
On January 12, the Bureau of Statistics will publish the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, a key index for determining interest rates. While we await the release, experts forecast a decline in the CPI data, a hint at weaker Dollar values in the global markets.
The trend in the scenario above is clearly bearish. We have also had a recent break of structure at the marked horizontal arrows, which means we can expect price to react from the supply zone that broke the structure.
Last year was tough for the Japanese yen. USDJPY gained more than 30% over 2022, striking above 150 in October. While anticipation of slower Fed rate hikes pulled the pair below the 130 level at the start of 2023, the speculations over the destiny of BOJ’s yield control policy grabbed the attention of the Japanese assets in the middle of January. What lies ahead for traders of the Japanese yen?
Today, at 5:00 pm (GMT +2), the Bank of Canada will publish the Overnight Rate, which represents short-term interest rates, and is pivotal to the overall pricing of the Canadian Dollar in the global markets. Let's look at how the markets are faring ahead of the BoC rates release.
In a call scheduled for January 25, 00:30 am GMT+2, Microsoft will publish the company's earnings for the final quarter of 2022 and comment on the results, projections, and outlook for the nearest future of the company.