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2022-06-23 • Updated
The US dollar kept falling lower during the previous week, pushing the major currency pairs up. At the same time, the US stock market bounced up, oil prices jumped higher, and gold strengthened above 1850. Next week, we expect the BOC rate statement, the OPEC+ meeting, and the Nonfarm payrolls release. Let's look at the opportunities in detail!
On Friday, EURUSD tested the zone above the 50-day SMA at 1.0750. The pair has a high chance of breaking level this week and targeting the resistance at 1.0900. Several market events can trigger a further rise of the euro. First, there is a speech of the FOMC Member Waller on Monday. If he comments on the possible end of the tightening cycle, it will indicate weakness of the USD. Second, there are several essential releases on the US employment throughout the week. While the Nonfarm payrolls' release on Friday is the most important one, JOLTS Job Openings and ADP Nonfarm employment change may also bring volatility to the key pairs.
Do not underestimate the interest rate decision by the Bank of Canada. Traders expect the central bank to raise the interest rate by 50 basis points. If this is correct, USDCAD will cross the 1.2660 level and fall lower to 1.2500.
The main event for the oil market is the OPEC+ meeting, where the oil-producing countries will discuss possible modifications to the current output plan. The committee has restricted calls from major oil importers to do more to stabilize the rising oil market. According to the alliance, as the oil supply is relatively in the balance right now, we don't see any changes in OPEC+ policy. The first resistance for XTIUSD lies at $115; after that, the price of WTI may head to $126. The price of Brent is moving to the resistance at $120; the next key level lies at $130.
The gold took advantage of the weak USD last week and moved closer to the peak of May 24 at 1870. The next resistance for gold lies at 1890. On the downside, 1840 represents a strong support line.
A lot of news happened on the US stock market last week. First of all, the American indices showed a week of stable gains. If S&P500 (US500) keeps going up, proving the formation of the double bottom on the daily chart, the next target for buyers will be placed at 4300 (50-day SMA). On contrary, if the USD takes back its strength, S&P500 will fall below 3900 to the next point at 3700. As for NASDAQ, the index rose 5% from Wednesday to the resistance at 12 600. After the breakout of this level, expect a rise to 13 600.
Stock traders await the 1-20 stock split by Amazon on June 3 after the trading session close. Thus, the stock may be pumped ahead of the event. We expect it to move higher to 2430 (50-month MA) this week.
The US dollar index rose to 105.40 after the Fed’s 75-basis-point key rate hike, while the stock and the crypto markets fell. However, during the past few days, investors and traders returned to risk assets as they expect inflation growth to slow. Moreover, Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve, announced the Fed might start cutting the key rate by 2024, which is the most evident hint of an upcoming market reversal.
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Last week was bearish for risky assets such as stocks, oil, gas, and crypto. Will the upcoming week change the situation across the markets? Let’s look at it in detail!
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