2022-12-16 • Updated
The US dollar kept falling lower during the previous week, pushing the major currency pairs up. At the same time, the US stock market bounced up, oil prices jumped higher, and gold strengthened above 1850. Next week, we expect the BOC rate statement, the OPEC+ meeting, and the Nonfarm payrolls release. Let's look at the opportunities in detail!
On Friday, EURUSD tested the zone above the 50-day SMA at 1.0750. The pair has a high chance of breaking level this week and targeting the resistance at 1.0900. Several market events can trigger a further rise of the euro. First, there is a speech of the FOMC Member Waller on Monday. If he comments on the possible end of the tightening cycle, it will indicate weakness of the USD. Second, there are several essential releases on the US employment throughout the week. While the Nonfarm payrolls' release on Friday is the most important one, JOLTS Job Openings and ADP Nonfarm employment change may also bring volatility to the key pairs.
Do not underestimate the interest rate decision by the Bank of Canada. Traders expect the central bank to raise the interest rate by 50 basis points. If this is correct, USDCAD will cross the 1.2660 level and fall lower to 1.2500.
The main event for the oil market is the OPEC+ meeting, where the oil-producing countries will discuss possible modifications to the current output plan. The committee has restricted calls from major oil importers to do more to stabilize the rising oil market. According to the alliance, as the oil supply is relatively in the balance right now, we don't see any changes in OPEC+ policy. The first resistance for XTIUSD lies at $115; after that, the price of WTI may head to $126. The price of Brent is moving to the resistance at $120; the next key level lies at $130.
The gold took advantage of the weak USD last week and moved closer to the peak of May 24 at 1870. The next resistance for gold lies at 1890. On the downside, 1840 represents a strong support line.
A lot of news happened on the US stock market last week. First of all, the American indices showed a week of stable gains. If S&P500 (US500) keeps going up, proving the formation of the double bottom on the daily chart, the next target for buyers will be placed at 4300 (50-day SMA). On contrary, if the USD takes back its strength, S&P500 will fall below 3900 to the next point at 3700. As for NASDAQ, the index rose 5% from Wednesday to the resistance at 12 600. After the breakout of this level, expect a rise to 13 600.
Stock traders await the 1-20 stock split by Amazon on June 3 after the trading session close. Thus, the stock may be pumped ahead of the event. We expect it to move higher to 2430 (50-month MA) this week.
During the Asian session on Wednesday, the USD/CAD pair rebounded after two days of losses, reaching around 1.3590. This uptick is fueled by a stronger US dollar and lower crude oil prices, which put pressure on the Canadian dollar. The decline in Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices to approximately $80.70 is attributed to...
Gold prices rose on Monday as the US Dollar weakened amidst speculation about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts starting in June. This weakened Dollar was partly due to improved risk sentiment pushing US Treasury yields lower. Despite facing challenges from declining yields, gold prices recovered to nearly $2,170 per troy ounce, driven by the Dollar's weakness. Federal Reserve Chair...
Canadian retail sales showed a slight rebound in February, rising by 0.1% after a 0.3% drop in January. However, this failed to fully offset the steeper decline earlier in the year, suggesting a weakening momentum in consumer spending. The increase in February was driven by gains in sectors such as sporting goods, hobby retailers, and building materials. Despite the...
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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